Hello there, I’m Edna Stewart, and after nearly four decades looking at numbers and market trends, I’ve learned that change is really the only constant. Today, I want to talk about what the near future might hold for the U.S. short-term rental (STR) market. If you’re a host, an investor, or just curious, I think you’ll find this interesting. The latest expert analyses, including a key report from AirDNA, suggest that 2025 is shaping up to be a year where things steady out, much like a ship finding calmer waters after a bit of a storm.
Finding a New Balance: Supply and Demand in 2025
For a while now, we’ve seen a lot of new short-term rental properties pop up. Think of it like a popular new bakery opening in town – suddenly, everyone wants to bake and sell bread! In 2022, the number of new STRs grew by a whopping 22.3% compared to the year before. But just like a town can only support so many bakeries, the market has started to cool. By 2024, that growth in new rentals slowed right down to 6.9%.
At the same time, more travelers have been looking for places to stay. In 2024, the demand for short-term rentals went up by 7%. When more people want to buy bread than there are new bakeries opening, existing bakers often do a bit better. And that’s what we saw – for the first time since 2021, the average income per available room, a term we call RevPAR, started to climb, going up by 3.4% in 2024.
What is RevPAR, you ask? Imagine you own a small inn with 10 rooms. RevPAR helps you understand how much money you’re making from those rooms overall, considering both how many are booked and the rate you’re charging. It’s a key way to measure how healthy a rental business is. You can think of it as your inn’s average daily earning power, spread across all your available rooms, whether they’re booked or not.
Looking ahead to the end of 2025, AirDNA forecasts that about 54.9% of short-term rentals in the U.S. will be occupied. This brings us back to the kind of occupancy levels we saw before the pandemic. This is expected because travel demand is likely to keep growing (by about 4.9%), while the number of new rentals coming onto the market will grow a little more slowly (at 4.7%). This balance is good news, and it’s predicted that RevPAR will nudge up by another 2.9%.
You can read more about these projections in AirDNA’s 2025 Outlook Report, summarized here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241205094869/en/AirDNA-2025-Outlook-Report-U.S.-Short-Term-Rental-Industry-Finds-Balance
City Lights and Country Quiet: Where is the Growth?
It’s interesting to see where these changes are happening. Big cities like New York, Washington D.C., San Francisco, and Atlanta are expected to see some good improvements. Part of this is because these cities often have stricter rules about new short-term rentals. When it’s harder for new places to open up, existing, legal rentals can do better because there’s less competition.
What about the smaller towns and countryside spots that became so popular during the pandemic? Well, they’re expected to stabilize. Think of it like a popular vacation spot that had a sudden surge of visitors – eventually, things settle into a more regular pattern, closer to how they were before the boom.
A Global Glance and Host Sentiments
Globally, the picture varies. In 2024, places like Asia and Africa saw a big jump in short-term rental availability (22% and 25% more, respectively). Growth was slower in North America (3%) and Oceania (5%).
Here at home, it seems hosts are feeling pretty hopeful. A report from Key Data, which talked to over 200 STR professionals, found that two-thirds (66%) of them expect to see their revenue grow in 2025. However, they’re also realistic – more than half (55%) think that competition will get tougher.
The Market Matures: What This Means for You
All these signs – slower growth in new rentals, more competition, and a need for smart, data-based decisions – point to one thing: the U.S. short-term rental market is growing up. The “gold rush” days, where new rentals popped up everywhere very quickly, seem to be shifting. Now, we’re moving into a time of more steady, sustainable growth.
This kind of market often works well for hosts who are serious about their rental business – those who run a professional operation, manage their costs well, use data to set their prices, and can keep up with local rules and regulations.
Speaking of rules, these are becoming a big factor. As we saw with the big cities, regulations that limit new supply can actually help existing, compliant rentals perform better by preventing the market from getting too crowded. This is something folks in places like Austin and Houston, where new rules are being discussed, will want to keep an eye on.
It’s a time of adjustment, but also a time of opportunity for those who are prepared to navigate this evolving landscape with good information and a thoughtful approach. As always, keeping an eye on the data will be key to understanding where the market is heading.
