Pigeon Forge STR market: 3,297 active listings, $337 average ADR in 2025, with rising rates offsetting occupancy compression.
Market Overview
Pigeon Forge is one of the largest short-term rental markets in Tennessee, with 3,297 active listings as of February 2026. The market sits at the edge of Great Smoky Mountains National Park, the most-visited national park in the United States, and draws roughly 11 million visitors to Sevier County each year.
Supply has grown significantly over the data window. In 2021, the market averaged 1,911 active listings. By 2025 that count reached 3,126, a 64% increase over four years. This supply growth is the primary driver of occupancy compression: average annual occupancy was 65% in 2021 and fell to 47% in 2025. The February 2026 snapshot shows 31% occupancy, which is consistent with the market’s seasonally slow winter pattern.
Despite lower occupancy, average daily rates have climbed. The market averaged $308 ADR in 2021 and reached $337 in 2025, a 9.4% gain. In December 2025, ADR hit $462, and in June and July 2025 it held above $370. Rate increases have partially cushioned revenue per listing against the occupancy drop, but average monthly revenue per listing fell from $7,551 in 2021 to $4,904 in 2025.
For investors evaluating entry, the direction of the market matters as much as the headline numbers. Supply is still growing (3,049 listings in early 2025 grew to 3,297 by February 2026), which suggests continued pressure on occupancy unless demand grows proportionally. ADR trends are favorable, and the underlying visitor base of 11 million annual guests provides durable demand.
Seasonal Patterns
| Month | Occupancy | ADR | Revenue | Active Listings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 38% | $297 | $3,413 | 2,634 |
| Feb | 39% | $255 | $2,854 | 2,639 |
| Mar | 60% | $282 | $5,643 | 2,329 |
| Apr | 54% | $278 | $4,867 | 2,319 |
| May | 51% | $280 | $4,767 | 2,235 |
| Jun | 64% | $326 | $6,919 | 2,403 |
| Jul | 60% | $333 | $7,389 | 2,574 |
| Aug | 55% | $291 | $5,486 | 2,576 |
| Sep | 56% | $278 | $4,930 | 2,579 |
| Oct | 64% | $314 | $6,420 | 2,485 |
| Nov | 57% | $329 | $5,611 | 2,563 |
| Dec | 58% | $373 | $6,783 | 2,626 |
Pigeon Forge has a pronounced seasonal pattern shaped by school calendars, fall foliage, and holiday travel. Based on monthly averages across all available data:
The strongest revenue months are July ($7,389 average), June ($6,919), December ($6,783), and October ($6,420). July and June benefit from summer travel, while October draws heavily from the Smoky Mountains fall foliage season. December captures Christmas and New Year’s travelers; December 2025 specifically showed $461.80 ADR, the highest in the dataset.
March and April are solid shoulder months. March averages $5,643 in revenue with 60% occupancy, driven by spring break visitors. April follows at $4,867 and 54% occupancy.
The weakest revenue months are February ($2,854) and January ($3,413). February occupancy averages 39% with a $255 ADR, reflecting the fewest visitors and lowest nightly rates in the calendar year. January is slightly stronger on revenue because of the New Year carry-over and winter mountain travelers, but it still averages only 38% occupancy.
For operators, this seasonal spread has practical implications. A property earning $7,000 in July may earn only $2,500 in February, a nearly 3x swing. Pricing strategy needs to account for both ends of the curve. Operators who use dynamic pricing tools and adjust minimum stays during high-demand weekends (especially October foliage weekends and Christmas week) typically outperform static-rate competitors in ADR.
Revenue Breakdown
| Metric | 25th Pctile | Median | 75th Pctile | 90th Pctile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/mo | $1,058 | $2,084 | $3,787 | $5,661 |
| ADR | $204 | $265 | $382 | $554 |
| Occupancy | 14% | 27% | 45% | 62% |
The following revenue figures come from the February 2026 data snapshot, which represents the market’s seasonal trough. They provide a conservative baseline for annual planning.
Bottom quartile (p25): $1,058 per month in February 2026. These properties are likely underperforming due to poor reviews, weak listing quality, or unfavorable locations.
Median (p50): $2,084 per month in February 2026. A typical performer in the market’s slowest season.
Top quartile (p75): $3,787 per month in February 2026. Well-positioned properties with strong reviews and active pricing management.
Top decile (p90): $5,661 per month in February 2026. Exceptional performers, likely larger cabins with premium amenities (hot tubs, game rooms, mountain views) that command premium rates year-round.
In peak months (July, December, October), these bands shift considerably upward. July 2025 average revenue was $6,876, and the best-performing properties in that month would have exceeded $10,000 to $12,000. Average daily rate in the latest month is $326.50, with the top decile pricing at $554 per night.
Investment Analysis
Revenue Trend
RevPAR & ADR Trend
| Date | Revenue | RevPAR | ADR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2021 | $8,146 | $263 | $304 |
| Apr 2021 | $7,844 | $262 | $311 |
| May 2021 | $7,495 | $242 | $299 |
| Jun 2021 | $8,469 | $282 | $320 |
| Jul 2021 | $8,694 | $280 | $330 |
| Aug 2021 | $7,520 | $243 | $312 |
| Sep 2021 | $6,854 | $229 | $288 |
| Oct 2021 | $7,112 | $229 | $319 |
| Nov 2021 | $6,353 | $212 | $289 |
| Dec 2021 | $7,025 | $227 | $311 |
| Jan 2022 | $4,341 | $140 | $260 |
| Feb 2022 | $3,668 | $131 | $248 |
| Mar 2022 | $5,786 | $187 | $256 |
| Apr 2022 | $4,720 | $157 | $269 |
| May 2022 | $4,557 | $147 | $259 |
| Jun 2022 | $7,289 | $243 | $297 |
| Jul 2022 | $7,732 | $249 | $332 |
| Aug 2022 | $5,672 | $183 | $272 |
| Sep 2022 | $5,815 | $194 | $267 |
| Oct 2022 | $7,005 | $226 | $276 |
| Nov 2022 | $6,157 | $205 | $280 |
| Dec 2022 | $6,675 | $215 | $288 |
| Jan 2023 | $3,673 | $119 | $232 |
| Feb 2023 | $3,069 | $110 | $205 |
| Mar 2023 | $5,166 | $167 | $237 |
| Apr 2023 | $4,521 | $151 | $233 |
| May 2023 | $4,031 | $130 | $221 |
| Jun 2023 | $6,107 | $204 | $256 |
| Jul 2023 | $7,245 | $234 | $275 |
| Aug 2023 | $4,899 | $158 | $238 |
| Sep 2023 | $4,211 | $140 | $233 |
| Oct 2023 | $5,553 | $179 | $275 |
| Nov 2023 | $5,062 | $169 | $341 |
| Dec 2023 | $6,637 | $214 | $408 |
| Jan 2024 | $3,227 | $104 | $325 |
| Feb 2024 | $2,481 | $86 | $250 |
| Mar 2024 | $4,606 | $149 | $314 |
| Apr 2024 | $3,475 | $116 | $296 |
| May 2024 | $3,898 | $126 | $310 |
| Jun 2024 | $6,130 | $204 | $375 |
| Jul 2024 | $6,400 | $207 | $354 |
| Aug 2024 | $4,628 | $149 | $309 |
| Sep 2024 | $3,826 | $128 | $290 |
| Oct 2024 | $5,805 | $187 | $330 |
| Nov 2024 | $4,689 | $156 | $348 |
| Dec 2024 | $6,356 | $205 | $398 |
| Jan 2025 | $2,708 | $87 | $292 |
| Feb 2025 | $2,236 | $80 | $245 |
| Mar 2025 | $4,509 | $146 | $302 |
| Apr 2025 | $3,773 | $126 | $284 |
| May 2025 | $3,851 | $124 | $312 |
| Jun 2025 | $6,599 | $220 | $381 |
| Jul 2025 | $6,876 | $222 | $373 |
| Aug 2025 | $4,715 | $152 | $321 |
| Sep 2025 | $3,943 | $131 | $310 |
| Oct 2025 | $6,622 | $214 | $372 |
| Nov 2025 | $5,794 | $193 | $386 |
| Dec 2025 | $7,221 | $233 | $462 |
| Jan 2026 | $3,118 | $101 | $373 |
| Feb 2026 | $2,818 | $101 | $327 |
Occupancy vs Supply
| Date | Occupancy | Active Listings |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2021 | 69% | 1,780 |
| Jun 2021 | 68% | 1,893 |
| Sep 2021 | 70% | 1,949 |
| Dec 2021 | 68% | 1,989 |
| Mar 2022 | 68% | 2,008 |
| Jun 2022 | 71% | 2,541 |
| Sep 2022 | 63% | 2,562 |
| Dec 2022 | 67% | 2,555 |
| Mar 2023 | 66% | 2,547 |
| Jun 2023 | 71% | 2,537 |
| Sep 2023 | 54% | 2,539 |
| Dec 2023 | 52% | 2,333 |
| Mar 2024 | 48% | 2,260 |
| Jun 2024 | 54% | 1,809 |
| Sep 2024 | 47% | 2,609 |
| Dec 2024 | 51% | 2,964 |
| Mar 2025 | 49% | 3,049 |
| Jun 2025 | 57% | 3,233 |
| Sep 2025 | 44% | 3,238 |
| Dec 2025 | 50% | 3,289 |
Pigeon Forge properties at the 50th percentile generated $2,084 in gross revenue in February 2026, a seasonally slow month. During peak periods, the same median performer earned $6,875 in July 2025 and $6,356 in December 2024. Annual gross revenue for a median performer, extrapolating from the seasonal averages across all available data, runs approximately $55,000 to $65,000 per year.
Top-quartile properties (p75) earned $3,787 in February 2026 and regularly exceeded $7,000 to $9,000 in peak months. The top decile (p90) reached $5,661 in February alone.
The typical home value in Pigeon Forge is $413,540, based on the housing market data in this dataset. With only 204 properties for sale as of the latest snapshot and a median of 69 days to pending, inventory is constrained. Buyers should expect to pay near or above asking in many cases.
At a $413,540 purchase price with 20% down ($82,708) and a 7.5% 30-year mortgage, monthly principal and interest would be approximately $2,310. Add property management (typically 20 to 30% of gross revenue for this market), insurance, HOA if applicable, and Sevier County hotel/motel tax at 5%, and a property needs to gross roughly $4,000 to $5,000 per month to break even on cash flow. Median performers hitting $4,904 average monthly revenue in 2025 are close to that threshold; top-quartile properties with $6,000 to $8,000 peak-month revenue can generate positive cash flow.
Key risks: supply grew 64% from 2021 to 2025 and is still expanding. New investors should stress-test their pro forma at 40% to 45% annual occupancy rather than the 2021 peak of 65%.
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| Date | Typical Home Value |
|---|---|
| Mar 2021 | $344,595 |
| Dec 2021 | $438,769 |
| Sep 2022 | $523,909 |
| Jun 2023 | $484,091 |
| Mar 2024 | $473,876 |
| Dec 2024 | $459,813 |
| Sep 2025 | $421,405 |
Booking Insights
Pigeon Forge guests book with a relatively short lead time compared to many STR markets. The average booking lead time is 37.3 days out, with a median of 27 days. This means half of all bookings are made fewer than four weeks before check-in, and the average booking comes in just over five weeks ahead.
Short lead times favor dynamic pricing strategies. Operators who drop rates aggressively as the check-in date approaches can fill gaps, but the best results come from holding rates firm on high-demand weekends (fall foliage, holidays, spring break) while using gap-night discounts on shoulder weekdays.
Average length of stay is 3.2 nights, with a median of 2.0 nights. The gap between the average and median suggests a mix of two-night weekend trips pulling the median down and longer week-long or extended stays pulling the average up. Setting minimum stays of 2 nights on weekends and 3 to 4 nights on peak holiday weeks is a common strategy to improve revenue per booking while reducing turnover costs.
For calendar management, the short lead-time pattern means operators should not expect their peak-month calendars to fill six or eight weeks out the way beach markets sometimes do. Most October foliage and Christmas week bookings will arrive within the 30 to 45 day window before the stay.
Short-Term Rental Regulations
Pigeon Forge requires all short-term rental operators to obtain a Short-Term Rental Unit Permit through Sevier County. Permits are issued annually, are non-transferable, and must be renewed each year. Two permit types exist: Owner Occupied (property is the owner’s principal residence) and Unoccupied (property is rented but not the owner’s primary home). Most investment properties fall into the Unoccupied category.
Zoning is a critical factor for new buyers. Properties in R-1 residential districts can only operate as short-term rentals if they were already operating as of August 13, 2018. Any R-1 property that was not operating as an STR before that date cannot legally become one today. This grandfathering restriction limits new STR supply in the most established residential neighborhoods. Properties zoned for tourism or commercial use do not face this restriction, which is why many newer STR developments in Pigeon Forge are purpose-built resort and cabin communities.
Occupancy limits cap rentals at two guests per bedroom, two bedrooms per room (interpreted as two beds per room in practice), and a hard maximum of 12 persons per property. Safety requirements include working smoke detectors, carbon monoxide detectors, and fire extinguishers.
Tax obligations include a 5% hotel/motel tax on all rental income, collected from guests and remitted quarterly to the county. Operators must also collect and remit Tennessee state sales tax on short-term rentals (currently 7%). Airbnb and VRBO collect state sales tax on behalf of hosts in Tennessee, but operators should verify county tax remittance responsibilities with an accountant.
For current permit applications and fee schedules, consult the Sevier County government directly.
Market Comparison
Pigeon Forge is a large market by Tennessee standards and by national STR benchmarks. With 3,297 active listings, it is one of the most supply-dense leisure STR markets in the Southeast.
Nationally, the average STR market occupancy across major leisure destinations has settled in the 45% to 55% range as of 2025 after the post-pandemic normalization. Pigeon Forge’s 47% annual average occupancy in 2025 puts it squarely in that range. Its average daily rate of $337 in 2025 is above the national average for non-urban leisure markets, which tends to cluster around $250 to $290, reflecting the market’s cabin-heavy inventory that commands higher nightly rates than typical condo or single-family STR inventory.
Compared to other Smoky Mountains area markets (Gatlinburg, Sevierville, Wears Valley), Pigeon Forge has the highest listing count and is the most supply-competitive. Gatlinburg typically has tighter supply and marginally higher ADRs due to its proximity to the national park entrance. Smaller surrounding communities may offer lower entry prices with similar revenue potential, though investor due diligence on their specific regulatory environments is required.
Occupancy compression from 65% (2021) to 47% (2025) mirrors a pattern seen across nearly all high-growth leisure STR markets nationally as supply caught up with post-pandemic demand. Pigeon Forge’s ADR growth from $308 to $337 over the same period is a positive counter-signal, suggesting that while more listings compete for guests, operators have maintained pricing power.
Frequently Asked Questions About Pigeon Forge, Tennessee
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