Fredericksburg STR market: 2,202 active listings, 32% occupancy, and $342 average daily rate as of February 2026.
Market Overview
Fredericksburg, Texas draws roughly 3 million visitors per year to a city of approximately 10,875 residents, making it one of the most tourism-dense short-term rental markets in the state. As of February 2026, the market holds 2,202 active STR listings with an average daily rate of $341.80 and a market-wide occupancy rate of 32%.
Supply has grown substantially over the past five years, rising from 1,381 active listings in 2021 to 2,232 in 2025. That 62% increase in inventory is the single most important structural force in this market. As a result, average occupancy has declined from 56.5% in 2021 to 36.3% in 2025, even as ADR climbed from $305 to $342 over the same period. The market is not contracting in demand; it is absorbing more supply.
RevPAR (revenue per available room) sits at $107.30 for the most recent month, and the median revenue among all active listings is $2,387 per month. The typical home value in Fredericksburg is approximately $503,211, which sets the floor for acquisition costs and shapes the math on returns.
The market draws visitors primarily for wine tourism, the National Museum of the Pacific War, Enchanted Rock State Natural Area, and the historic Main Street retail and dining corridor. These demand drivers are structural and year-round rather than dependent on a single event or season, which provides baseline resilience even as occupancy has softened.
Seasonal Patterns
| Month | Occupancy | ADR | Revenue | Active Listings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 36% | $312 | $3,718 | 1,892 |
| Feb | 40% | $303 | $3,644 | 1,889 |
| Mar | 54% | $312 | $5,886 | 1,695 |
| Apr | 50% | $323 | $5,436 | 1,685 |
| May | 46% | $313 | $5,068 | 1,611 |
| Jun | 47% | $307 | $5,039 | 1,729 |
| Jul | 46% | $303 | $5,114 | 1,868 |
| Aug | 39% | $288 | $4,368 | 1,874 |
| Sep | 43% | $299 | $4,387 | 1,886 |
| Oct | 48% | $328 | $5,204 | 1,850 |
| Nov | 49% | $331 | $5,109 | 1,873 |
| Dec | 49% | $337 | $5,357 | 1,893 |
Fredericksburg has two distinct peak windows and a moderate floor in its slowest months. Spring and fall are the strongest seasons; summer and January are the softest.
March is the single best month by occupancy, averaging 54.2% with average revenue of $5,886. October is the strongest fall month at 48% occupancy and $5,204 in average revenue, driven by fall foliage and wine harvest events. November and December also perform above the annual average, at 48.8% and 49.4% occupancy respectively, with ADR running $331 and $337.
The summer months (June through August) see occupancy in the 39-47% range. June and July average occupancy of 47% and 45.6%, with ADR holding near $303-307. Revenue in these months averages $5,039-$5,114, which is competitive but lower than spring.
January and February are the softest months. January averages 35.8% occupancy at $312 ADR and $3,718 revenue. February averages 39.8% occupancy. The gap between peak March (54.2%) and trough January (35.8%) is 18.4 percentage points, which is a moderate swing compared to beach or ski markets.
For pricing strategy, operators should set peak rates for mid-March through April and again in October, allow moderate rate compression in summer to hold occupancy, and use minimum-stay policies in shoulder months to protect ADR. The relatively stable ADR across months ($288-$337 range) suggests the market supports rate discipline year-round.
Revenue Breakdown
| Metric | 25th Pctile | Median | 75th Pctile | 90th Pctile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/mo | $1,287 | $2,387 | $3,979 | $6,013 |
| ADR | $198 | $280 | $406 | $594 |
| Occupancy | 19% | 30% | 42% | 56% |
Revenue in the Fredericksburg STR market is spread across a wide range depending on property quality, location, and pricing strategy.
In February 2026, the 25th percentile property earned approximately $1,287 gross per month. Half of all active listings earned $2,387 or less (the median). Properties in the top quarter of the market earned $3,979 or more, and the top 10% reached $6,013 or above.
On the ADR side, the 25th percentile is $198 per night, the median is $280, the 75th percentile is $406, and the 90th percentile is $594 per night. The wide spread between the 25th and 90th percentile ($198 to $594) reflects the range from basic studio-style cabins to premium ranch properties with multiple bedrooms, private pools, and exclusive outdoor amenities.
Annualizing the median ($2,387 per month) produces gross annual revenue of approximately $28,644. The 90th percentile annualizes to roughly $72,156. These are gross figures before platform fees (typically 3% host fee on Airbnb), cleaning costs, maintenance, insurance, and property management (typically 20-30% if outsourced).
Investment Analysis
Revenue Trend
RevPAR & ADR Trend
| Date | Revenue | RevPAR | ADR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2021 | $7,228 | $233 | $299 |
| Apr 2021 | $6,916 | $231 | $304 |
| May 2021 | $6,900 | $223 | $305 |
| Jun 2021 | $6,863 | $229 | $301 |
| Jul 2021 | $7,044 | $227 | $301 |
| Aug 2021 | $6,530 | $211 | $300 |
| Sep 2021 | $6,124 | $204 | $303 |
| Oct 2021 | $6,661 | $215 | $325 |
| Nov 2021 | $5,853 | $195 | $305 |
| Dec 2021 | $6,256 | $202 | $305 |
| Jan 2022 | $4,843 | $156 | $294 |
| Feb 2022 | $4,750 | $170 | $301 |
| Mar 2022 | $6,373 | $206 | $308 |
| Apr 2022 | $6,010 | $200 | $321 |
| May 2022 | $5,868 | $189 | $323 |
| Jun 2022 | $5,998 | $200 | $297 |
| Jul 2022 | $6,023 | $194 | $302 |
| Aug 2022 | $4,823 | $156 | $266 |
| Sep 2022 | $5,519 | $184 | $278 |
| Oct 2022 | $5,937 | $192 | $281 |
| Nov 2022 | $6,134 | $205 | $292 |
| Dec 2022 | $5,927 | $191 | $282 |
| Jan 2023 | $4,539 | $146 | $269 |
| Feb 2023 | $4,442 | $159 | $264 |
| Mar 2023 | $6,414 | $207 | $295 |
| Apr 2023 | $5,472 | $182 | $283 |
| May 2023 | $5,002 | $161 | $276 |
| Jun 2023 | $4,969 | $166 | $263 |
| Jul 2023 | $5,036 | $162 | $268 |
| Aug 2023 | $4,284 | $138 | $246 |
| Sep 2023 | $4,438 | $148 | $284 |
| Oct 2023 | $4,634 | $150 | $324 |
| Nov 2023 | $4,407 | $147 | $342 |
| Dec 2023 | $4,896 | $158 | $359 |
| Jan 2024 | $3,190 | $103 | $339 |
| Feb 2024 | $2,923 | $101 | $297 |
| Mar 2024 | $4,635 | $150 | $326 |
| Apr 2024 | $5,071 | $169 | $388 |
| May 2024 | $3,725 | $120 | $318 |
| Jun 2024 | $3,587 | $120 | $324 |
| Jul 2024 | $3,509 | $113 | $311 |
| Aug 2024 | $2,921 | $94 | $296 |
| Sep 2024 | $2,958 | $99 | $297 |
| Oct 2024 | $4,322 | $139 | $340 |
| Nov 2024 | $4,491 | $150 | $344 |
| Dec 2024 | $4,937 | $159 | $359 |
| Jan 2025 | $3,031 | $98 | $315 |
| Feb 2025 | $3,099 | $111 | $308 |
| Mar 2025 | $4,781 | $154 | $334 |
| Apr 2025 | $3,711 | $124 | $320 |
| May 2025 | $3,842 | $124 | $345 |
| Jun 2025 | $3,778 | $126 | $350 |
| Jul 2025 | $3,959 | $128 | $334 |
| Aug 2025 | $3,280 | $106 | $333 |
| Sep 2025 | $2,894 | $97 | $333 |
| Oct 2025 | $4,467 | $144 | $372 |
| Nov 2025 | $4,662 | $155 | $373 |
| Dec 2025 | $4,768 | $154 | $381 |
| Jan 2026 | $2,989 | $96 | $344 |
| Feb 2026 | $3,004 | $107 | $342 |
Occupancy vs Supply
| Date | Occupancy | Active Listings |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2021 | 60% | 1,285 |
| Jun 2021 | 60% | 1,372 |
| Sep 2021 | 54% | 1,416 |
| Dec 2021 | 59% | 1,429 |
| Mar 2022 | 57% | 1,435 |
| Jun 2022 | 51% | 1,829 |
| Sep 2022 | 55% | 1,860 |
| Dec 2022 | 62% | 1,857 |
| Mar 2023 | 63% | 1,841 |
| Jun 2023 | 53% | 1,821 |
| Sep 2023 | 47% | 1,802 |
| Dec 2023 | 43% | 1,741 |
| Mar 2024 | 45% | 1,664 |
| Jun 2024 | 36% | 1,353 |
| Sep 2024 | 32% | 2,065 |
| Dec 2024 | 43% | 2,242 |
| Mar 2025 | 46% | 2,250 |
| Jun 2025 | 35% | 2,270 |
| Sep 2025 | 28% | 2,285 |
| Dec 2025 | 40% | 2,198 |
The investment case in Fredericksburg depends heavily on where a property lands in the performance distribution. At the 25th percentile, properties generate roughly $1,287 per month in gross revenue. At the median (50th percentile), the figure is $2,387. The 75th percentile reaches $3,979, and top-performing properties at the 90th percentile average $6,013 per month.
With a typical home value of $503,211, a median-performing property generating $2,387 per month produces annual gross revenue of approximately $28,644, or a gross revenue yield of about 5.7%. After operating expenses (typically 35-50% of gross for STR), net returns narrow considerably. Investors targeting the top quartile, at $3,979 or above per month, see gross yields above 9.5%.
The occupancy trajectory is the primary risk factor. Occupancy dropped from 56.5% in 2021 to 36.3% in 2025, with the decline driven by supply growth outpacing demand absorption. Listing counts are now stabilizing in the 2,200 range, and ADR has continued to rise, suggesting rate-setting discipline among operators. However, a new investor entering at $503,000 should model 35-40% occupancy rather than the 50%+ rates that characterized the early post-pandemic period.
The strongest investment profile is a differentiated property: distinct architecture, vineyard proximity, private pool, or unique layout that commands above-median ADR ($280+). Properties near the Main Street corridor or within 10 miles of Enchanted Rock tend to outperform the market average.
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Start Free TrialHome Value Trends
| Date | Typical Home Value |
|---|---|
| Mar 2021 | $412,765 |
| Dec 2021 | $497,570 |
| Sep 2022 | $546,561 |
| Jun 2023 | $523,965 |
| Mar 2024 | $527,466 |
| Dec 2024 | $518,382 |
| Sep 2025 | $514,435 |
Booking Insights
Booking behavior in the Fredericksburg market skews toward short, relatively spontaneous reservations. The average booking lead time is 34.3 days, with a median of 25 days. This means half of all bookings are made within approximately 3.5 weeks of the stay date.
Average length of stay is 2.5 nights, with a median of 2 nights. The market is dominated by weekend getaway trips rather than week-long vacations. Two-night Friday-to-Sunday reservations are the most common booking pattern.
For operators, the short lead time has two implications. First, holding out for higher rates on dates more than 30 days out is often counterproductive; demand tends to materialize late, so dynamic pricing rules should accommodate late-booking discounts to capture fill-ins. Second, a minimum stay of 2 nights is broadly appropriate and will not significantly restrict bookings given the median LOS matches exactly.
The combination of short lead times and 2-night stays means occupancy is highly dependent on weekend demand. Properties that price aggressively for midweek stays or attract weekday work-from-anywhere guests will outperform the average. Properties relying solely on weekend revenue will see natural caps on achievable monthly occupancy in the 40-55% range even in strong months.
Short-Term Rental Regulations
Fredericksburg has an active and evolving STR regulatory environment. Property owners must obtain a short-term rental permit from the City of Fredericksburg before operating. The permit application carries a non-refundable fee of $275 plus an administrative fee of $33.10.
Effective January 1, 2026, new STR registration requirements took effect. Registration opened October 1, 2025. All operators must ensure compliance with the updated registration process regardless of whether they held a prior permit.
Key permit requirements include: a designated 24/7 emergency contact who must be reachable and able to respond on-site within one hour; proof of registration to collect and remit hotel occupancy taxes; liability insurance coverage; and full compliance with safety standards including smoke detectors and carbon monoxide detectors.
The hotel occupancy tax rate totals 13%: 6% to the State of Texas and 7% to the City of Fredericksburg. This tax applies to all short-term rental stays and must be collected from guests and remitted to the appropriate authorities. Platforms such as Airbnb may collect and remit state-level taxes automatically, but operators should verify city-level tax remittance obligations directly.
Guest capacity restrictions and other operational requirements apply under local ordinance. Investors should review the current City of Fredericksburg STR ordinance directly before acquisition, as regulations have been updated recently and may continue to evolve. Operating without a valid permit exposes owners to fines and potential loss of operating rights.
Market Comparison
Fredericksburg occupies a distinct position among Texas STR markets. Its $341.80 ADR for February 2026 is notably higher than most urban Texas markets, reflecting the premium that wine country and destination tourism commands. For comparison, major Texas metros typically see ADR in the $120-$180 range for comparable time periods.
Occupancy at 32% for February 2026 is below Texas market averages, which tend to run 45-55% in winter months for well-established urban markets. However, February is Fredericksburg’s second-lowest month, and the annual occupancy picture (averaging roughly 45% across peak months) is more competitive.
The market’s 2,202 active listings relative to a resident population of 10,875 represents one of the highest listing-to-population ratios in Texas, approximately 1 STR listing per 5 residents. This concentration creates intense within-market competition but also signals that STR is an established and accepted part of the local economy.
Nationally, the U.S. STR market has seen occupancy compression since 2021 as supply grew faster than demand in many leisure destinations. Fredericksburg mirrors this national pattern: occupancy down roughly 20 percentage points from peak, ADR up as operators compensate with higher rates. This is a maturation dynamic seen in Asheville, Smoky Mountains, and similar drive-to leisure markets across the country.
Frequently Asked Questions About Fredericksburg, Texas
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