Julian's 246-listing STR market earns a median $2,063/month with strong fall and holiday peaks driven by 300,000 annual visitors.
Market Overview
Julian, California sits at 4,226 feet in the Cuyamaca Mountains of San Diego County, roughly one hour east of downtown San Diego. The short-term rental market here is small and destination-focused: as of February 2026, 246 active listings compete for a guest pool drawn primarily by apple orchards, fall foliage, historic gold rush sites, and weekend escapes from the San Diego metro.
Average daily rate in the most recent data month (February 2026) was $300, with a median ADR of $239. Average monthly revenue across all active listings was $2,648, though the median sits at $2,063, indicating a right-skewed distribution where a subset of top-performing properties pulls the average higher.
The listing count has grown considerably since 2021, rising from roughly 175 active listings to 246 by early 2026. That 41% supply increase has coincided with meaningful occupancy compression: average occupancy ran 64.8% in 2021 and stood at 33.5% in the partial 2026 data. ADR, however, has held up and actually increased, averaging $267-$268 in 2021-2023 before climbing to $289 in 2024 and $339 in 2025, then pulling back to $302 in early 2026. The net effect is that revenue per listing has declined from a 2021 average of $5,718/month to $2,875 in the 2026 data, a shift that reflects both more supply and softer post-pandemic demand normalization.
Julian draws an estimated 300,000 visitors annually to a town of only 1,491 permanent residents, meaning the visitor-to-resident ratio is exceptionally high. That tourism concentration is the market’s core demand driver.
Seasonal Patterns
| Month | Occupancy | ADR | Revenue | Active Listings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 41% | $283 | $3,572 | 225 |
| Feb | 42% | $275 | $3,207 | 225 |
| Mar | 51% | $287 | $4,361 | 207 |
| Apr | 52% | $290 | $4,343 | 208 |
| May | 47% | $294 | $4,228 | 201 |
| Jun | 48% | $291 | $4,269 | 213 |
| Jul | 49% | $280 | $4,569 | 224 |
| Aug | 44% | $277 | $4,031 | 226 |
| Sep | 45% | $278 | $3,837 | 226 |
| Oct | 51% | $286 | $4,459 | 219 |
| Nov | 52% | $301 | $4,628 | 222 |
| Dec | 51% | $305 | $4,934 | 225 |
Julian’s STR market shows clear and consistent seasonal structure across 60 months of data. The highest-revenue months are December, November, and July, driven respectively by holiday travel, fall apple harvest season, and summer mountain escapes from the San Diego heat.
December averages $4,934 in monthly revenue per listing with a 51.4% occupancy rate and $305 ADR. November is nearly as strong at $4,628 revenue, 51.6% occupancy, and $301 ADR. October also performs well at $4,459 revenue and 50.6% occupancy. The fall harvest window (October through December) is consistently Julian’s most reliable demand period.
July leads the summer months at $4,569 average revenue and 49.4% occupancy. June and August trail slightly at $4,269 and $4,031 respectively. Summer demand is driven by San Diego residents seeking cooler temperatures, as Julian sits roughly 3,500 feet above the coast.
The weakest months are January and February. January averages $3,572 revenue with 40.8% occupancy and February drops to $3,207 with 42.4% occupancy. March through May land in the middle tier ($4,228-$4,361 revenue), supported by spring hiking and wildflower activity at Cuyamaca Rancho State Park.
For pricing strategy, operators should set their highest ADR during October, November, and December (average ADRs of $286-$305 in those months) and expect to discount meaningfully in January and February to sustain occupancy. The occupancy swing between the weakest month (33% in the February 2026 snapshot) and the strongest seasonal periods is approximately 18-20 percentage points.
Revenue Breakdown
| Metric | 25th Pctile | Median | 75th Pctile | 90th Pctile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/mo | $1,201 | $2,063 | $3,510 | $5,301 |
| ADR | $172 | $239 | $364 | $524 |
| Occupancy | 18% | 29% | 47% | 64% |
The February 2026 data shows a wide spread across the Julian market’s 246 active listings:
– 25th percentile (bottom quarter): $1,201/month in revenue, 18% occupancy, $172 ADR
– 50th percentile (median): $2,063/month in revenue, 29% occupancy, $239 ADR
– 75th percentile (top quarter): $3,510/month in revenue, 47% occupancy, $364 ADR
– 90th percentile (top 10%): $5,301/month in revenue, 64% occupancy, $524 ADR
The gap between p25 and p90 is $4,100/month, or roughly $49,200 annually. This wide distribution reflects how much individual property performance varies based on size, amenities, reviews, and pricing strategy.
RevPAR (revenue per available room) was $94.60 on average and $73.70 at the median in February 2026, consistent with a soft winter month. Average monthly revenue across all listings was $2,648, pulled above the $2,063 median by high-performing outliers. Investors targeting the p75 threshold should aim for properties with hot tubs, mountain views, pet-friendly policies, or capacity for 6 or more guests, as those features consistently appear in higher-performing Julian listings.
Investment Analysis
Revenue Trend
RevPAR & ADR Trend
| Date | Revenue | RevPAR | ADR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2021 | $6,158 | $199 | $272 |
| Apr 2021 | $6,047 | $202 | $274 |
| May 2021 | $5,821 | $188 | $262 |
| Jun 2021 | $5,638 | $188 | $274 |
| Jul 2021 | $6,264 | $202 | $268 |
| Aug 2021 | $5,865 | $189 | $264 |
| Sep 2021 | $4,919 | $164 | $241 |
| Oct 2021 | $5,542 | $179 | $270 |
| Nov 2021 | $5,450 | $182 | $277 |
| Dec 2021 | $5,475 | $177 | $270 |
| Jan 2022 | $4,516 | $146 | $261 |
| Feb 2022 | $4,386 | $157 | $278 |
| Mar 2022 | $4,604 | $149 | $274 |
| Apr 2022 | $4,966 | $166 | $277 |
| May 2022 | $4,475 | $144 | $276 |
| Jun 2022 | $5,116 | $171 | $267 |
| Jul 2022 | $5,485 | $177 | $249 |
| Aug 2022 | $4,567 | $147 | $255 |
| Sep 2022 | $4,862 | $162 | $269 |
| Oct 2022 | $5,353 | $173 | $250 |
| Nov 2022 | $5,488 | $183 | $279 |
| Dec 2022 | $5,613 | $181 | $283 |
| Jan 2023 | $4,038 | $130 | $256 |
| Feb 2023 | $3,562 | $127 | $236 |
| Mar 2023 | $4,441 | $143 | $273 |
| Apr 2023 | $4,339 | $145 | $246 |
| May 2023 | $3,983 | $129 | $240 |
| Jun 2023 | $4,009 | $134 | $257 |
| Jul 2023 | $4,198 | $135 | $268 |
| Aug 2023 | $3,490 | $113 | $263 |
| Sep 2023 | $3,386 | $113 | $270 |
| Oct 2023 | $3,957 | $128 | $282 |
| Nov 2023 | $4,062 | $135 | $296 |
| Dec 2023 | $4,162 | $134 | $315 |
| Jan 2024 | $2,936 | $95 | $284 |
| Feb 2024 | $2,696 | $93 | $257 |
| Mar 2024 | $2,903 | $94 | $283 |
| Apr 2024 | $2,757 | $92 | $294 |
| May 2024 | $3,215 | $104 | $313 |
| Jun 2024 | $2,788 | $93 | $302 |
| Jul 2024 | $3,301 | $107 | $292 |
| Aug 2024 | $2,861 | $92 | $272 |
| Sep 2024 | $2,966 | $99 | $273 |
| Oct 2024 | $3,368 | $109 | $274 |
| Nov 2024 | $3,585 | $120 | $305 |
| Dec 2024 | $4,832 | $156 | $323 |
| Jan 2025 | $3,269 | $105 | $311 |
| Feb 2025 | $2,742 | $98 | $305 |
| Mar 2025 | $3,700 | $119 | $335 |
| Apr 2025 | $3,608 | $120 | $357 |
| May 2025 | $3,648 | $118 | $378 |
| Jun 2025 | $3,792 | $126 | $356 |
| Jul 2025 | $3,598 | $116 | $324 |
| Aug 2025 | $3,371 | $109 | $331 |
| Sep 2025 | $3,053 | $102 | $335 |
| Oct 2025 | $4,073 | $131 | $354 |
| Nov 2025 | $4,557 | $152 | $348 |
| Dec 2025 | $4,590 | $148 | $334 |
| Jan 2026 | $3,101 | $100 | $304 |
| Feb 2026 | $2,648 | $95 | $300 |
Occupancy vs Supply
| Date | Occupancy | Active Listings |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2021 | 66% | 160 |
| Jun 2021 | 65% | 173 |
| Sep 2021 | 63% | 179 |
| Dec 2021 | 62% | 183 |
| Mar 2022 | 60% | 184 |
| Jun 2022 | 55% | 229 |
| Sep 2022 | 52% | 228 |
| Dec 2022 | 58% | 227 |
| Mar 2023 | 58% | 220 |
| Jun 2023 | 52% | 220 |
| Sep 2023 | 43% | 221 |
| Dec 2023 | 43% | 213 |
| Mar 2024 | 36% | 204 |
| Jun 2024 | 34% | 173 |
| Sep 2024 | 35% | 238 |
| Dec 2024 | 48% | 256 |
| Mar 2025 | 36% | 268 |
| Jun 2025 | 35% | 269 |
| Sep 2025 | 31% | 263 |
| Dec 2025 | 46% | 247 |
Julian presents a mixed investment picture that rewards careful property selection and realistic revenue underwriting.
At the median, a Julian STR generated $2,063/month in the most recent period, or roughly $24,756 annually. Top-quartile properties (p75) earned $3,510/month and 90th-percentile performers reached $5,301/month. The spread between median and p90 is wide ($3,238/month), which tells you property quality, location, and capacity matter significantly in this market.
Entry costs are substantial. The typical home value in Julian is $568,369, with for-sale inventory of approximately 48 properties at the time of data snapshot. At that purchase price and assuming a 25% down payment ($142,092), a 7% mortgage rate on a 30-year loan produces a monthly principal and interest payment of approximately $2,843. That means a median-performing property ($2,063/month gross revenue) does not cover the mortgage alone before accounting for platform fees (typically 3%), property management (20-30% if outsourced), taxes, insurance, utilities, and maintenance. A property earning at the p75 level ($3,510/month) is closer to break-even on the mortgage but still faces a thin margin before expenses.
The occupancy trend warrants attention. Average occupancy fell from 64.8% in 2021 to 36.7% in 2025 and 33.5% in early 2026. This is consistent with national STR supply normalization post-2021, but Julian’s mountain/seasonal profile means off-peak months (January, February, August) can be particularly slow. Investors who can acquire below the typical home value, operate without professional management, or convert properties with above-average capacity and amenities (hot tubs, pet-friendly, larger group accommodations) are best positioned to hit p75 or above.
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Start Free TrialHome Value Trends
| Date | Typical Home Value |
|---|---|
| Mar 2021 | $448,265 |
| Dec 2021 | $505,554 |
| Sep 2022 | $550,904 |
| Jun 2023 | $544,378 |
| Mar 2024 | $560,970 |
| Dec 2024 | $568,900 |
| Sep 2025 | $556,980 |
Booking Insights
Based on February 2026 data, the average booking in Julian is made 25 days in advance, with a median lead time of 18 days. This is a relatively short planning window, suggesting most Julian guests are impulse or short-horizon planners booking weekend getaways rather than extended vacations scheduled months out.
Average length of stay is 4.5 nights, with a median of 2 nights. The median being half the average indicates a bimodal pattern: most bookings are weekend stays (Friday to Sunday), while a smaller segment of guests books longer stays of a week or more, pulling the average up.
For operators, the short lead time and weekend-heavy booking pattern have practical implications. Dynamic pricing tools that reprice aggressively in the 7-14 day window before check-in are particularly important, since last-minute inventory can either be discounted to fill gaps or held at premium pricing during peak weekends when demand spikes. Setting a 2-night minimum on weekends is standard in this market and protects against single-night bookings that create cleaning cost inefficiency.
The 18-day median lead time also means that building a strong review base early is critical. Guests booking within three weeks of arrival rarely have time for extensive comparison shopping, so a listing that appears near the top of search results with strong reviews and clear photos will capture a disproportionate share of last-minute demand.
Short-Term Rental Regulations
Julian falls under San Diego County’s short-term rental regulations, which are moderately complex but well-documented. Here is what operators need to know.
The primary requirement is a Transient Occupancy Registration Certificate (TORC) from the San Diego County Treasurer-Tax Collector. This requires submitting property details, ownership documentation, and contact information. The TORC number must be displayed on all listings and advertisements.
In parallel, operators must register with San Diego County Planning and Development Services and confirm that the property’s zoning classification permits short-term rentals. Julian-area properties fall under county (unincorporated) jurisdiction rather than a city, but zoning restrictions still apply and some residential zones restrict or prohibit STRs.
The county levies a 10% Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) on all rental income. Operators are responsible for collecting this from guests and remitting it quarterly to the county. Platforms like Airbnb remit TOT automatically in many jurisdictions, but operators should verify whether the county has a collection agreement with their specific platform.
Safety requirements include working smoke detectors in every sleeping area, carbon monoxide detectors, a fire extinguisher that is clearly marked and accessible, posted emergency exit information, and compliance with all applicable building and health codes. Liability insurance and a 24-hour emergency contact number for guests are also required.
Violations can result in fines, permit revocation, and legal action. The county’s full STR guidelines and application portal are available through sandiegocounty.gov. Given Julian’s tight community character, maintaining good-neighbor practices (quiet hours, parking limits, occupancy limits) is also practically important for avoiding complaints that can trigger enforcement.
Market Comparison
Julian is a small mountain destination market, not a large urban STR hub, and its metrics reflect that profile. With 246 active listings and a 33% average occupancy in February 2026, the market is smaller and softer than coastal San Diego markets. San Diego city proper, for example, has thousands of active listings and regularly posts occupancy rates above 60% in peak months.
ADR tells a more favorable story. Julian’s $300 average ADR (February 2026) and $239 median ADR are competitive for a rural mountain market. The $524 ADR at the 90th percentile is notable and reflects that premium cabin and retreat properties in Julian can command pricing comparable to urban boutique hotels.
Nationally, the average STR occupancy rate in small mountain/rural markets has normalized to the 40-55% range on an annualized basis after the 2021-2022 peak. Julian’s 2025 annualized average of 36.7% occupancy sits below that range, which reflects both supply growth and the market’s heavy dependence on a single demand driver (the San Diego day-trip and weekend-getaway segment). Markets with more diversified demand (multiple seasonal draws, corporate travel, event calendars) tend to maintain higher baseline occupancy.
Revenue upside is real but concentrated. The p75-to-p90 cohort in Julian earns $3,510-$5,301/month, which is competitive with many coastal and resort markets. Getting a property into that cohort requires above-average amenities and management quality.
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