Carnelian Bay, California Short-Term Rental Market
Carnelian Bay Lake Tahoe STRs averaged $404/night in April 2026 with a 2025 annual average of $5,990/month revenue and July peak occupancy of 69.7%.
Quick Answer: Carnelian Bay, California is an active short-term rental market. average occupancy is 59%. average monthly revenue is $6,904. average daily rate is $518. the top operator is Vacasa with 1,004 listings. market score is 44/100 (grade D).
Market data reflects the Lake Tahoe regional market, which includes Carnelian Bay. Regulations, taxes, and permit details below are specific to Carnelian Bay.
Market Score Breakdown
Five dimensions Apivex evaluates per market.
Market Overview
Carnelian Bay is a small lakefront community on the North Shore of Lake Tahoe in unincorporated Placer County, California. With a permanent population of approximately 518, it draws from the broader North Lake Tahoe visitor economy, estimated at 3 million or more visitors per year across the region. The STR market here is meaningfully seasonal, driven by summer lake recreation and winter ski access.
The most recent data point (April 2026) reflects a shoulder-season trough: occupancy was 24.7% and average monthly revenue was $3,439. These figures are not representative of the annual market. The 2025 full-year average was 47.2% occupancy and $5,990 per month in revenue, providing a more accurate picture of baseline performance. July is the peak month, reaching 69.7% occupancy and average monthly revenue of $7,925.
The April 2026 ADR of $404.30 represents a 4.72% increase year-over-year, while the April occupancy decline of -17.64 percentage points from April 2025 contributed to a -10.51% revenue change for that month. The annual trend is more positive: 2025 revenue of $5,990 was up from $5,687 in 2024, and 2025 ADR of $474 was up from $453 in 2024.
The listing mix is dominated by entire-place rentals (11,082 of 11,350 classified listings), with 268 private rooms. By bedroom count, 3-bedroom properties lead at 3,743 listings, followed by 4-bedroom (2,315), 2-bedroom (2,276), 1-bedroom (2,024), and 5-bedroom (961). The mix reflects Tahoe’s family-and-group rental base.
Channel distribution shows 7,058 listings on both Airbnb and VRBO, with 3,161 Airbnb-only and 1,131 VRBO-only. VRBO’s relative share is higher here than in most California markets, reflecting Tahoe’s historically strong VRBO presence for whole-home vacation rentals.
Seasonal Patterns
| Month | Occupancy | ADR | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 48% | $458 | $5,858 |
| Feb | 56% | $468 | $6,501 |
| Mar | 44% | $423 | $5,459 |
| Apr | 33% | $356 | $3,547 |
| May | 40% | $366 | $3,313 |
| Jun | 61% | $438 | $5,837 |
| Jul | 70% | $456 | $7,924 |
| Aug | 58% | $442 | $6,842 |
| Sep | 40% | $386 | $4,164 |
| Oct | 31% | $348 | $3,241 |
| Nov | 38% | $378 | $3,115 |
| Dec | 55% | $503 | $6,073 |
Top Short-Term Rental Operators in Carnelian Bay
Ranked by total active listings. Useful for understanding the competitive landscape.
| # | Operator | Listings | Reviews | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vacasa | 1,004 | 34,496 | ★ 4.40 |
| 2 | Tahoe Getaways | 356 | 10,146 | ★ 4.72 |
| 3 | Evolve | 218 | 11,544 | ★ 4.65 |
| 4 | Grand Welcome | 178 | 8,667 | ★ 4.54 |
| 5 | Tahoe Vacation Rentals | 177 | 4,628 | ★ 4.61 |
What Kind of STR Should I Buy in Carnelian Bay?
Revenue and pricing by property type, tier, and bedroom count.
Revenue by Bedroom Count
| 1 bed | 2,024 |
| 2 bed | 2,276 |
| 3 bed | 3,743 |
| 4 bed | 2,315 |
| 5 bed | 961 |
ADR by Property Tier
| Entire Home | $527 |
| Luxury | $1,138 |
| Professionally Managed | $610 |
Revenue by Dwelling Type
| Apartment | $4,854 |
| Entire Place | $7,009 |
| House | $8,024 |
Booking Channel Mix
Distribution of bookings across major STR platforms.
| Channel | Share |
|---|---|
| airbnb | 27.9% |
| vrbo | 10% |
| both | 62.2% |
Investment Analysis
At a typical home value of approximately $1,091,000 (Zillow, April 2026) and only 15 properties listed for sale in the snapshot, Carnelian Bay is a thin, high-priced market with limited inventory. Using the 2025 annual average monthly revenue of $5,990, annualized revenue is approximately $71,900, implying a gross yield of approximately 6.6% at current typical home values.
The luxury-tier ADR for April 2026 was $987.89, nearly 2.4x the all-listing average of $404.30. Professionally managed properties averaged $481.27 per night, a 19% premium over the overall average. Entire-place listings averaged $3,496 per month in April (the trough month), and house listings averaged $3,953. The 2025 full-year context translates to meaningfully higher revenue across all tiers during peak months.
The revenue growth score of 70.55 is the strongest of the five market dimensions, reflecting consistent ADR appreciation over time: ADR has risen from $359 in 2017 to $474 in 2025. The investability score of 62.23 is relatively strong for a California coastal or mountain market, reflecting the combination of high ADR, concentrated demand, and limited competing supply.
The primary investment risk factors are the Placer County 3,900 non-owner-occupied STR permit cap, fire inspection requirements, and the pronounced seasonality. The April 2026 occupancy of 24.7% illustrates how weak the spring shoulder can be. Investors should underwrite based on the 2025 annual average of 47.2% occupancy, not peak-month figures, to model realistic cash flow.
Revenue Trend (5 yr)
ADR & Occupancy Trends (5 yr)
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Booking Insights
Carnelian Bay guests book an average of 43.8 days in advance as of April 2026, roughly six weeks out. This lead time is somewhat shorter than pure summer beach markets, reflecting a mix of advance-booking leisure travelers (summer lake cabins, holiday ski weeks) and shorter-window planners for shoulder-season trips.
Average length of stay is 3.65 nights, consistent with weekend-plus trips typical of drive-market destinations. The San Francisco Bay Area and Sacramento are the primary source markets for North Lake Tahoe, and a 3-4 night stay covering a long weekend is the dominant trip pattern.
For operators, the 43.8-day average lead time means that peak-season summer weekends fill up 6 weeks ahead. Minimum-stay requirements of 3-5 nights during July and peak holiday weeks are common in this market and help reduce turnover costs while maintaining occupancy. In shoulder months (April, October), lowering minimum-night requirements can attract bookings that would otherwise go elsewhere. Dynamic pricing adjustments implemented at least 6 weeks before target periods will reach the majority of in-market planners.
Short-Term Rental Regulations
Carnelian Bay short-term rentals are governed by the Placer County Short-Term Rental Program, not a local city code. The county requires an annual STR permit (application fee $326.02) and a Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) certificate. Neither owner-occupancy nor primary-residence status is required.
A countywide cap of 3,900 non-owner-occupied STR permits applies across the eastern Placer County Tahoe Basin. Owner-occupied STRs are exempt from this cap. As of the profile data, the cap status should be verified with Placer County before purchasing for STR use.
Properties in the North Tahoe Fire District, which includes Carnelian Bay, must pass interior Fire Life Safety and exterior Defensible Space inspections to receive and renew a permit. Fire inspections are valid for three years and cost approximately $507 for county-managed inspections. A bear-proof refuse container and a local contact available 24/7 within 35 driving miles are required.
Occupancy is capped at two guests per bedroom plus two additional guests, with a maximum of 12. Quiet hours run from 9 PM to 8 AM and are strictly enforced via a 24/7 complaint hotline (530-448-8003).
The TOT rate is 10%, consisting of 8% county TOT plus a 2% North Lake Tahoe Tourism Business Improvement District (TBID) assessment for lakefront properties (Zone 1). Unlike most CA platforms, neither Airbnb nor VRBO currently collect and remit Placer County TOT on hosts’ behalf, so operators must register, collect, and file their own quarterly returns. Enforcement is rated strict. A December 2024 ordinance amendment clarified that the 30-night minimum rental requirement applies only once the 3,900-permit cap is reached.
Market Comparison
Carnelian Bay’s ADR of $404.30 (April 2026) is well above the US STR median of approximately $220, reflecting the premium Lake Tahoe location. The 2025 annual average ADR of $474 is more than double the national median. April occupancy at 24.7% reflects a seasonal trough and is below the national median of approximately 55%, but the July peak of 69.7% and the 2025 annual average of 47.2% better represent the market’s demand profile.
RevPAR of $99.98 in April 2026 reflects the shoulder-season period. At peak (July), RevPAR would approximate $318 (69.72% occupancy times $456 ADR). The national benchmark at median rates is approximately $121 RevPAR.
Vacasa dominates the professional management market in Carnelian Bay with 1,004 listings and 34,496 reviews at a 4.395 rating, by far the largest operator in the dataset. Tahoe Getaways holds 356 listings with 10,146 reviews at a 4.715 rating, the highest average rating among the top five. Evolve manages 218 listings with 11,544 reviews at a 4.654 rating. Grand Welcome and Tahoe Vacation Rentals each manage approximately 177-178 properties. The top three operators alone account for 1,578 listings, indicating a more professionally managed market than most comparably sized resort destinations.
The total market score of 44.47 is below average, with seasonality (53.27) and rental demand (53.08) as the weaker dimensions. Revenue growth (70.55) and investability (62.23) are the relative strengths, making Carnelian Bay a market better suited to patient long-term holders than short-term yield-maximizers.
Frequently Asked Questions About Carnelian Bay, California
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