Year-Round vs Seasonal STR Markets: Which Type Actually Makes More Money in 2026

Destin, Florida’s short-term rental market collapsed to 25.8% occupancy in January 2025. The same market hit 93.3% in June. That swing of 67 percentage points is the kind of seasonal volatility that sends investors running toward Nashville or Austin, chasing the “safe” year-round story. Here is what StaySTRA data actually shows: the Destin investor who sat through that brutal January earned approximately $65,856 in annual gross revenue. The Austin investor with steady 57.7% occupancy year-round earned $33,528. Think of it like a farmer who harvests nothing for six months and then fills three barns in one good season. The harvest is what pays the bills, not the planting calendar.

After forty years of working with market data, I still find this counterintuitive. Stability feels safe. Variance feels risky. But in STR investing, the question is never “which market stays busy?” It is “which market generates the most dollars per available night across all twelve months?” Those are very different questions, and they produce very different investment decisions.

This article runs the actual numbers from six markets: Austin, Nashville, Destin, Scottsdale, Gatlinburg, and Pigeon Forge. We are going to define year-round and seasonal operationally, compare real annual gross revenue, explain exactly when the ADR premium in a seasonal market overcomes the off-season trough, and walk through the cash flow discipline that makes seasonal investing survivable. Stay with me here. The math is simpler than it looks.

How to Define Year-Round vs. Seasonal (With Actual Thresholds)

The real estate world uses these terms loosely. A market gets called “year-round” when an agent wants to charge more for it, and “seasonal” when they want to warn you away. We need a cleaner definition.

For this analysis, StaySTRA defines a year-round market as one where peak-to-trough occupancy variation stays at or below 25 percentage points across the calendar. That is your signal: if your best month and your worst month are within 25 points of each other, you have a year-round market. We also flag any market where occupancy falls below 50% for at least one month as “at least mildly seasonal.”

Using that definition, here is how our six markets classify:

• Austin, TX: 21 percentage-point variance (March peak 67.7%, January trough 46.7%). True year-round. The one market in this study that never dips below 46%.
• Nashville, TN: Approximately 30 percentage-point variance (May peak 65.2%, January trough 36.7%). Mild seasonal, often called urban year-round, but the January number tells the real story.
• Scottsdale, AZ: 34 percentage-point variance (March peak 87.1%, June trough 53.3%). Mild to moderate seasonal, with an inverted season (best months are January through April).
• Gatlinburg, TN: 45 percentage-point variance (July peak 80.7%, January trough 35.5%). High seasonal with two distinct peaks: summer and fall foliage.
• Pigeon Forge, TN: 52 percentage-point variance (July peak 80.7%, January trough 29%). High seasonal, the widest swing in the Smoky Mountains corridor.
• Destin, FL: 67 percentage-point variance (June peak 93.3%, January trough 25.8%). The most seasonal market we examined. January is genuinely difficult.

Nashville gets marketed as a year-round market constantly. But a 36.7% January occupancy rate is not year-round. It is mild seasonal with a good PR team. Don’t let that number scare you, because Nashville still performs very well annually. It simply is not what the brochure claims.

The Six-Market Comparison Table

All figures are from StaySTRA database. Annual gross estimates use LTM (last twelve months) average monthly revenue for each market, multiplied by 12. These represent the market average per active listing across all property types.

RevPAN = ADR multiplied by LTM occupancy rate. It is the single most useful number in this table: revenue earned per every night the property is available, regardless of whether it is booked.

The RevPAN column tells the story better than occupancy alone. Austin’s 57.7% annual occupancy sounds respectable. But its $130 RevPAN is the lowest in the group. Destin’s $232 RevPAN is 78% higher. Scottsdale’s $203 is 56% higher. Even Gatlinburg’s $175, from a market with brutal January numbers, beats Austin by 35%.

Why Seasonal Markets Can Win: The ADR Premium Math

Here is the mechanism. Think of ADR like a volume dial that only goes up during peak season in resort markets. When Destin is filling to 93% occupancy in June, hosts are not simply getting more bookings. They are charging $451 per night. That is 100% more than Austin’s $225 ADR in March, which is Austin’s own peak month.

The break-even question for a seasonal market is: does the ADR premium during peak weeks generate enough revenue to fund the quiet weeks? Here is the actual math for Destin in 2025:

June 2025: $10,884 in monthly revenue. January 2025: $1,631. The monthly mortgage on a $250,000 investment property at a 7% DSCR loan rate runs approximately $1,663. Destin’s worst month still covers the mortgage. The June surplus of roughly $9,200 above the mortgage payment becomes the reserve that funds any month where revenue falls short.

Gatlinburg’s monthly range runs from about $2,568 in the winter trough to $6,618 in peak July. The trough months do not cover a mortgage on a $250,000 property with much room to spare. But the four peak months (June through October, which in the Smokies includes fall foliage at 77.4% occupancy) generate enough surplus to carry those lean winter months with cash left over.

The formula: a seasonal market beats a year-round market when (peak RevPAN x peak nights) plus (trough RevPAN x trough nights) exceeds (year-round RevPAN x 365). Destin’s June RevPAN is $421 ($451 ADR x 93.3% occupancy). Austin’s March RevPAN is $162 ($240 ADR x 67.7% occupancy). Even with a January RevPAN of only $75 ($292 x 25.8%), Destin’s seasonal math wins across a full year.

Market-by-Market Breakdown

Austin, TX: True Year-Round, Lower Ceiling

Austin is the cleanest year-round market in this study. With only 21 percentage points separating its best and worst months, an Austin STR investor faces predictable, consistent cash flow. January at 46.7% is manageable. March at 67.7% (SXSW and spring conference season) is the one meaningful spike, but it does not dwarf the baseline.

The trade-off is ceiling. At $225 LTM ADR and $33,528 annual gross, Austin is the entry-level annual revenue market in this group. If you need the most predictable monthly cash flow and the property pencils at $33,000 per year, Austin delivers. If your spreadsheet is asking “where does my money grow fastest,” the other five markets beat Austin on annual gross.

Nashville, TN: Mild Seasonal, Urban ADR Premium

Nashville confuses investors because it performs like a year-round market on the marketing materials and like a mild seasonal market in January. At $238 ADR and 36.7% occupancy in January 2025, the winter trough is real. The saving grace is that Nashville’s LTM ADR is $301 and its peak months (April through October) all sit above 56% occupancy with ADR consistently above $285.

The result: $60,276 annual gross LTM, the second-highest in this group and 80% above Austin. Nashville proves you do not need beach seasonality to outperform year-round markets. Event-driven urban demand (bachelorette weekends, concerts, sports) creates ADR premiums that compound. The January trough hurts. The April through October run more than compensates.

Scottsdale, AZ: Inverted Season, Reliable Floor

Scottsdale is the inversion case. Investors who hear “seasonal” imagine a dead summer. In Scottsdale, the slow period is summer, and that period still runs at 53.3% occupancy, which most markets would call acceptable. The real story is the peak: 87.1% occupancy in March 2025 at $389 ADR generating $7,066 that month alone.

At $50,340 annual gross LTM, Scottsdale sits in the middle of this group. It does not reach Destin or Nashville peaks, but it also never drops below 53% occupancy. The inverted season means Scottsdale competes for a different traveler: snowbirds, spring training baseball fans, golfers. Those guests tend to book further in advance and stay longer, which stabilizes the revenue floor.

Gatlinburg, TN: Double Peak, Consistent ADR

Gatlinburg has something most seasonal markets do not: two peaks. Summer peaks in July at 80.7% occupancy, then October (fall foliage season) runs at 77.4% with ADR at $302, the highest monthly ADR in our Gatlinburg data set. That means two distinct revenue surges per year rather than a single summer spike followed by six slow months.

At $56,220 annual gross LTM, Gatlinburg outperforms Austin by 68% despite two months near 35% occupancy. The cabin product commands LTM ADR around $282, meaningfully higher than Austin’s $225. Even the “slow” February at 35.7% occupancy and $262 ADR generates $2,421 monthly, more than Austin’s $2,015 January despite Gatlinburg’s deeper trough.

Pigeon Forge, TN: Wide Swing, Strong Peak

Pigeon Forge sits adjacent to Gatlinburg in the Smokies corridor with similar seasonal patterns but slightly lower LTM ADR ($260 vs. $282). The January trough hits harder at 29% occupancy versus Gatlinburg’s 35.5%. Annual gross LTM of $52,716 still outperforms Austin by 57%.

The Pigeon Forge investor who builds a three-month cash reserve before November can ride out the January trough without financial stress. July revenue of $6,403 and October revenue of $5,935 leave plenty of surplus to bank for the lean months ahead.

Destin, FL: Maximum Seasonal Range, Maximum Revenue

Destin is the extreme case. A 67 percentage-point occupancy variance and a June 2025 peak of $10,884 monthly revenue make this the highest-ceiling market in the group. The trade-off is the January floor of $1,631, which barely covers the mortgage on a property purchased at $250,000.

What makes Destin work is the Gulf of Mexico premium. When guests pay $451 per night in June because there is nowhere else they would rather be, the math shifts dramatically. The market earns in six weeks what some year-round markets earn in six months. At $65,856 annual gross LTM, Destin leads this group and outperforms Austin by 96%. That is not a risky bet. It is an opportunity that requires cash flow planning.

When Year-Round Markets Are the Right Call

Year-round markets are not always the wrong choice. There are specific situations where stability wins.

If you are house-hacking (owner-occupied with occasional rental income), the year-round market makes compliance and flexibility easier. You are not trying to maximize 52 weeks of rental revenue.

If the property is financed at a stretch and cash flow is genuinely tight, Austin-style occupancy stability means you are never counting on a big June to bail out a bad February. Some investors sleep better knowing their worst month is 46%, not 25%.

Year-round urban markets with strong corporate demand can also generate mid-term rental income in shoulder periods. A Nashville or Austin property during slow STR weeks can often be listed for 30-day minimums at rates that cover the gap. Destin has no equivalent in January.

Cash Flow Planning for Seasonal Markets

The off-season is not a surprise. Every seasonal market has one and the dates are known in advance. A host caught off guard by a quiet January in Destin was not paying attention to their own calendar. The question is whether you planned for it before you bought.

Here is the framework experienced Smoky Mountains and Gulf Coast hosts use:

Calculate your monthly break-even first. Add up fixed costs: loan payment, insurance, utilities, any HOA. For a $250,000 property that is typically $2,000 to $2,500 per month in total fixed cost. That is your floor. Any month above that generates surplus. Any month below draws from reserves.

Identify your surplus months. In Destin, June, July, May, and April all generate revenue well above $5,000. Even after operating expenses (cleaning, supplies, platform fees, management), these months produce meaningful net surplus each.

Build the reserve before you need it. Experienced seasonal hosts typically hold three months of total fixed costs in a separate reserve account. For a Destin property at $2,200 per month in fixed costs, that is a $6,600 reserve. The June surplus alone covers this amount and then some.

Consider mid-term positioning in deep off-season. Some Smoky Mountains hosts list January and February as 30-day minimum rentals targeting remote workers, traveling nurses, or people between homes. The ADR is lower but occupancy climbs, and cash flow becomes more predictable.

Never conflate occupancy with income. A month with 25.8% occupancy in Destin still generates $1,631. At 29 days, that is guests in the property for roughly 7.5 nights at $292 ADR. It is real cash. It is not peak performance, but it is not zero.

The Calculation That Drives the Decision

The most common error in STR market comparisons is evaluating markets on occupancy rate alone. “Nashville is 61% occupied year-round. Destin drops to 26% in January. Nashville is safer.” That conclusion misses the ADR side entirely.

RevPAN is your measure. If peak RevPAN in the best 16 weeks of the year exceeds what a year-round market earns across all 52 weeks, you are looking at a better market regardless of trough depth. From our six-market analysis: Destin’s June RevPAN is $421. Austin’s March RevPAN (peak month) is $162. No amount of steady 57% occupancy at $225 ADR closes that gap.

Run the numbers for your specific market before you commit. I have been doing this kind of analysis for four decades, and the one lesson that holds across every cycle is that the data does not care about the narrative. The numbers are the answer. Use them.

We do our best to keep our data accurate and up to date, but markets move fast and we are only human. Always verify current figures directly with local sources before making investment decisions.

Before you decide where to put your next STR investment, run the specific market through the StaySTRA Analyzer. The seasonality patterns, monthly occupancy, and ADR data for your target market are all there. The year-round versus seasonal debate is ultimately answered by the numbers in your specific deal. See what the data shows for the market you are evaluating.

For a broader look at how different STR market categories perform, see our comparison of beach versus mountain versus lake STR market returns in 2026 and our STR revenue benchmarks by market type. For occupancy data across cities, see our Airbnb occupancy rate by city tracker.