Airbnb Occupancy Rate by City in 2026. What the Data Shows for STR Investors

Forty years of looking at data has taught me one thing: the number that feels most straightforward is usually the one that needs the most explaining. Occupancy rate is exactly that number. It looks clean. It sits in every pro forma spreadsheet. And investors misread it constantly.

StaySTRA’s database tracks trailing twelve-month (LTM) performance across 55 U.S. markets as of February 2026. The top performer, Phoenix, sits at 52% annual occupancy. The bottom of the dataset, Alexandria, Minnesota, sits at 19%. The spread between them tells you almost everything about how the short-term rental market actually works, and why two properties can show the same occupancy rate and generate completely different returns.

This week, Key Data released its July 4th 2026 Short-Term Rental Performance Report, covering pacing data for the holiday weekend across 25 major markets. The headline is encouraging: the national average booking window grew 2.1% year over year, rising from 131.5 days in 2025 to 134.2 days in 2026. Travelers are planning further ahead than they did last summer. RevPAR is growing in 22 of the 25 markets analyzed. The demand picture, heading into the strongest weeks of the year, is healthy.

But healthy nationally does not mean equal across markets. Some markets are quietly underperforming while investors assume they are buying into the same rising tide. The data, once you sit with it, tells a more specific story.

What Occupancy Rate Actually Means

Before we get to the rankings, stay with me here for a moment on definitions, because this is where a lot of investors go wrong. I have a cup of black coffee and a Pueblo bowl on my desk that has held the same dried lavender for fifteen years, and I can tell you from the number of times I have explained this concept that getting the foundation right changes everything downstream.

Occupancy rate is simply nights booked divided by nights available. A property available for 365 nights that books 200 of them has a 54.8% occupancy rate. At the market level, occupancy is the average of that calculation across all active listings in the area.

Think of it like average attendance at a stadium. A stadium that sells 60% of its seats every game earns more revenue than one running at 80% capacity if the ticket prices are different enough. Attendance alone does not tell you whether the operation is profitable.

The metric that actually matters for investment decisions is RevPAR: Revenue Per Available Night. RevPAR equals occupancy rate multiplied by average daily rate (ADR). A market with 50% occupancy and a $400 ADR generates $200 in RevPAR per available night. A market with 65% occupancy and a $120 ADR generates $78 in RevPAR. The second market looks better on a simple occupancy ranking. It is not.

With that foundation, let us look at what StaySTRA data actually shows across 55 markets.

The Full 55-Market Occupancy Picture

The table below covers all 55 U.S. markets in StaySTRA’s database, ranked by LTM occupancy rate through February 2026. These are annual averages, which means seasonal markets (beach towns, ski resorts) will show lower numbers than they post during their peak months. We will address that seasonality in a later section.

Data source: StaySTRA database, airroi_market_metrics_all table, LTM figures through February 1, 2026.

What the Top 10 Markets Tell Us

The Arizona trio sits at the very top of this table. Phoenix and Scottsdale both post 52% LTM occupancy, but the investor calculation plays out very differently between them. Phoenix properties average $373 in ADR, producing $194 in RevPAR per available night. Scottsdale properties average $588 in ADR, pushing RevPAR to $304. Same occupancy. Scottsdale generates 57% more revenue per available night. That difference is the ADR doing heavy lifting, and it reflects Scottsdale’s stronger position as a luxury and resort destination compared to Phoenix’s more mixed urban and tourism demand.

Sarasota and Joshua Tree round out the 50% tier. Sarasota at $377 ADR is a strong performer for a Gulf Coast market, with $195 RevPAR. It has benefited from the continued inflow of Florida residents and the draw of its arts district and beaches. Miami comes in at 49% occupancy and $325 ADR, with RevPAR of $159. The Miami number reflects a market with strong demand and meaningful supply growth. Anyone who followed Miami’s trajectory over the last two years knows the inventory side has expanded quickly as investors moved in.

Key West is the standout of the top tier: 49% annual occupancy paired with a $903 ADR, the highest in our dataset by a wide margin. The RevPAR of $427 per available night is the best number in the entire table. The island’s constrained land supply and its bucket-list destination status keep nightly rates elevated regardless of season. Key West’s full location profile shows this premium reflected across the market, not just at the high end.

Mammoth Lakes, California rounds out the top tier at 49% occupancy and a $584 ADR, with $278 RevPAR. This is a reminder that ski markets are not just winter plays. Mammoth’s summer hiking and outdoor recreation season has extended its demand curve in a way that single-season ski towns have not matched.

The RevPAR Revelation: Why High Occupancy Is Not the Whole Story

Let me show you the most important comparison in the table.

Orlando sits at 49% occupancy with a $253 ADR. RevPAR: $121. Park City, Utah sits at 39% occupancy with a $986 ADR. RevPAR: $372.

Park City has 10 percentage points less occupancy than Orlando. It generates three times the RevPAR.

Think of ADR like the nightly rate on a hotel room and occupancy like how often that room gets filled. A $100-per-night motel that fills 80% of its rooms earns $80 RevPAR. A $400-per-night boutique hotel that fills 50% of its rooms earns $200 RevPAR. The motel owner brags about occupancy. The boutique hotel owner quietly deposits the larger check.

The markets where StaySTRA data shows the best combination of occupancy and ADR are concentrated in three categories: constrained-supply resort towns (Key West, Park City, Mammoth Lakes), Arizona destination markets (Scottsdale, Sedona), and California coastal and mountain markets (South Lake Tahoe, San Diego). These markets share a structural characteristic: supply cannot easily grow because land is limited, regulations are strict, or both.

South Lake Tahoe at 38% occupancy and $611 ADR produces $236 RevPAR. That is better than New Orleans at 43% occupancy and $472 ADR, which produces $199 RevPAR. On a pure occupancy ranking, New Orleans looks stronger. On RevPAR, which is what actually drives investment returns, South Lake Tahoe wins by a meaningful margin.

For a deeper look at how market type shapes these dynamics, the analysis on beach vs mountain vs lake market returns in 2026 covers the structural factors behind each category’s performance in detail.

Where Supply Has Outrun Demand

Now for the markets that deserve more scrutiny. Don’t let these numbers frighten you, but understand what they are telling you before committing capital to these areas.

Branson, Missouri sits at the bottom of the table: 20% annual occupancy, $228 ADR, $47 RevPAR. The market’s concentration of family entertainment venues drives a sharp seasonal pattern, but even in peak season, new supply has compressed occupancy significantly. Anyone evaluating Branson needs to model against peak months specifically rather than annual averages.

Alexandria, Minnesota comes in at 19% annual occupancy, the lowest in the dataset. The $365 ADR suggests guests who do book are paying reasonable rates for a lake destination, but the volume simply is not there to support strong investment returns at most price points. A RevPAR of $72 per available night makes the cash flow math very difficult unless the property can be acquired at a fraction of prices elsewhere.

Myrtle Beach, South Carolina is the most interesting case on the low side: 27% annual occupancy, $213 ADR, $57 RevPAR. Key Data’s July 4th 2026 report flags Horry County (which includes Myrtle Beach) as one of only three markets pacing for RevPAR decline this summer, down 2.0% year over year. When a market already shows weak annual numbers AND is among the worst performers in summer pacing data, that combination warrants careful due diligence before buying.

Dare County, North Carolina (the Outer Banks) is worth noting even though it does not appear in StaySTRA’s 55-market database. Key Data shows it with the highest absolute occupancy in their July 4th dataset at 59.1%, while RevPAR is still down 1.3% year over year due to occupancy softness compared to last summer’s peak. Strong beaches, active supply growth. That tension is the Outer Banks story right now.

Port Aransas, Texas at 24% annual occupancy and $409 ADR is a case of high ADR masking weak volume. The RevPAR of $96 suggests demand has not kept pace with the premium pricing hosts are attempting. Understanding why occupancy is low in a high-ADR market tells you whether the fix is pricing or fundamentals.

What Key Data’s July 4th Report Tells Investors About Summer 2026

The Key Data July 4th 2026 Short-Term Rental Performance Report is the freshest demand signal of the summer season. It tracks pacing for the holiday weekend across 25 major U.S. markets, comparing 2026 performance to 2025 baselines.

The national picture shows demand is healthy. The average booking window rose from 131.5 days to 134.2 days, a 2.1% year-over-year increase. Travelers are committing to summer trips earlier than they did last year. That is a bullish signal for hosts who manage pricing intelligently during the forward-booking window.

Average length of stay ticked up from 5.55 nights to 5.59 nights, a 0.7% gain. Small movement, but directionally positive. Slightly longer stays improve operational efficiency and reduce cleaning cost per revenue dollar.

Regional standouts include the Mid-Atlantic, which Key Data shows with 19.5% occupancy growth and 26.2% RevPAR growth for the holiday period. New England is up 18.1% in RevPAR with travelers booking 14.7% further in advance than a year ago. Osceola County, Florida (the Kissimmee and Disney corridor) is showing 27.9% RevPAR growth driven by occupancy up 7.9% and ADR up 18.6%. The Midwest overall is posting 29.9% RevPAR growth.

Only three markets in the dataset are pacing for RevPAR decline: Dare County, NC (down 1.3%); Horry County, SC (down 2.0%); and the Hawaiian Islands (down 3.7%). Hawaii stands apart as the only market where ADR is also declining year over year, which signals weaker pricing power rather than just supply pressure. In most softening markets, ADR holds while occupancy compresses. When both decline together, the story is more structural.

Market Type Medians: Beach vs Mountain vs Urban

Comparing a beach market to an urban market without acknowledging structural differences leads investors to wrong conclusions. Let me walk through how these categories compare in StaySTRA data.

Beach and coastal markets in our dataset range from 27% occupancy (Myrtle Beach) to 50% (Sarasota, Saint Augustine), with a median around 43%. The ADR range is wide: $213 at Myrtle Beach to $903 at Key West. The beach market story is really two stories: constrained-supply markets with premium pricing (Key West, Sarasota, San Diego, Charleston, Saint Augustine) and supply-heavy markets where inventory growth has compressed both occupancy and rates (Myrtle Beach, Panama City Beach, Daytona Beach). The former group sits 10 to 20 percentage points above the latter on occupancy, and the RevPAR gap is even larger.

Mountain and resort markets cluster differently. Scottsdale and Sedona post 52% and 49% annual occupancy supported by year-round demand from hikers, wellness travelers, and seasonal visitors. Mammoth Lakes and Park City deliver 49% and 39% occupancy respectively, with ADR at $584 and $986. The key to mountain market performance is whether a destination has a second season. Markets drawing visitors year-round (Scottsdale’s mild winters, Mammoth’s summer hiking, Sedona’s spiritual tourism) consistently outperform single-season destinations on annual occupancy metrics.

Urban markets show the tightest cluster, mostly in the 34 to 49% range. Miami leads at 49%, Nashville and Park City at 39%, Austin and Denver at 38%. Urban markets benefit from consistent year-round demand but compete directly with hotel inventory in a way that true resort markets do not. The urban markets with the strongest RevPAR tend to be those with a clear tourism identity beyond pure business travel. New Orleans at $199 RevPAR and Miami at $159 RevPAR reflect that pattern.

Rural and cabin markets (Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, Broken Bow, Wimberley) cluster in the 30 to 32% annual range. These markets are almost entirely seasonal, and the annual occupancy number dramatically understates peak-period performance. A property in Gatlinburg at 32% annually is likely posting 70 to 80% during peak fall foliage and summer months. The investment case in these markets is built on those peak weeks. The annual average tells you about demand consistency; the monthly breakdown tells you about cash flow timing.

For more on how property type interacts with occupancy across market categories, the bedroom count and STR revenue analysis breaks down how one-bedroom, two-bedroom, and larger properties perform differently within the same market conditions.

The Occupancy Floor Every Investor Should Know

One of the most common questions I get from investors is: what is the minimum occupancy rate I should accept before buying? The honest answer is that it depends on ADR and purchase price, but there is a practical floor worth knowing.

For most market-rate properties, 40% annual occupancy is the point where a property starts generating cash flow above operating expenses in a typical STR market. Below 40%, you need either an unusually high ADR or an unusually low purchase price to make the math work. Above 40%, most properties can cover expenses and generate some return. The question becomes how much return and how predictable it is.

Looking at StaySTRA’s 55-market dataset, 19 markets exceed 40% annual LTM occupancy. These are concentrated in Florida (eight markets), Arizona (three markets), and California (three markets). The geographic concentration is not a coincidence. Year-round warm weather and strong tourism infrastructure create the demand consistency that keeps annual averages elevated.

For markets in the 35 to 40% range, the investment case typically requires either strong ADR or significant upside from seasonal peaks. Nashville at 39% annual occupancy posts $335 ADR and $125 RevPAR. Nashville’s full market profile shows the bachelorette party and music tourism demand that keeps that ADR supported even in the off-season. Park City at 39% with $986 ADR works for entirely different reasons: scarcity pricing in a constrained market.

For markets below 35%, due diligence needs to go deeper. This does not mean they are bad investments. Gatlinburg at 32% annual occupancy can still produce strong fall and summer revenue. But you need to understand the seasonal pattern specifically, not just the annual average. A property that sits at 15% in January but hits 80% in July and October can generate solid annual returns if the purchase price reflects the market’s constraints.

The most useful exercise before buying is working backward from your required RevPAR to your required occupancy at a realistic ADR. If your debt service and operating costs require $150 per available night to break even, and the market ADR is $300, then you need 50% occupancy. If the market average is 35%, you have a problem to solve before you close. Our STR market analysis framework walks through exactly that calculation.

Ready to run the numbers on a specific market? The StaySTRA Analyzer pulls LTM occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR for any market in our database and lets you build a property-specific cash flow model based on actual market performance. It takes about five minutes, and the data behind it is the same StaySTRA market intelligence used to evaluate six and seven-figure STR purchases.