Thanksgiving STR Market Data 2026: Which Markets See the Biggest Demand Spike (And How Investors Can Position Now)

Key Takeaways

Nationally, STR occupancy in November 2025 averaged 47.9% across 307 markets tracked by StaySTRA, slightly below the October baseline of 52.1%. The national average understates what happens in specific market types.
Mountain and ski markets show the biggest Thanksgiving-period demand spikes. Frisco/Silverthorne, CO jumped from 28.1% occupancy in October to 44.4% in November, a 58% increase. Breckenridge hit 43.0% after sitting at 30.5% in October.
Warm coastal and snowbird markets are the second big winner. Key West reached 57.2% occupancy in November, up from 49.0% in October. Naples, FL climbed from 48.5% to 58.1%. Coachella Valley rose from 44.0% to 52.5%.
Classic summer beach markets fall sharply in November. Gulf Shores dropped from 54.9% in October to 34.3%. Destin fell from 55.0% to 33.4%. Investors buying in these markets for a Thanksgiving demand story are looking at the wrong data.
Urban markets like San Francisco (68.8%), Los Angeles (64.6%), and Denver (59.7%) hold well above the national average in November, providing year-round stability that Thanksgiving-season markets cannot match.

The national average STR occupancy for November 2025 was 47.9%. If you own a property in Naples or Key West, you almost certainly beat that number by a wide margin. If you own in Gulf Shores or the Outer Banks, you were well below it. That 47.9% figure is accurate, and it is nearly useless on its own. StaySTRA data across 307 markets tells a sharply different story depending on where you look.

Five weeks before Thanksgiving 2026, this is the question that matters: does your market actually spike for the holiday, or have you been assuming it does? The data, broken down by market type, gives a clearer answer than most hosts and investors realize.

What the National Number Actually Tells You

Think of the national average the way you would think of the average temperature in the United States on any given day. It tells you something real about the whole, but it tells you almost nothing useful about the city you are in.

StaySTRA data for November 2025 puts the national average STR occupancy at 47.9% across 307 U.S. markets. For comparison, October 2025 averaged 52.1%, and September averaged 48.3%. November, as a whole, actually sits closer to September than it does to October. The October peak is driven heavily by fall foliage travel in the Northeast and the Appalachian cabin belt, not by Thanksgiving demand specifically.

The Thanksgiving effect is real. But it is concentrated. And if you are not in the right market type, the national headline number is not your number.

Market Type 1: Ski and Mountain Destinations (The Biggest Spikes)

Ski markets have a counterintuitive October. They sit near their lowest occupancy of the year before the slopes open, then jump in November as Thanksgiving travel begins. This makes the percentage increase from October to November look dramatic because the starting point is so low.

StaySTRA data for November 2025 compared to October 2025:

Frisco/Silverthorne, CO: 28.1% in October to 44.4% in November, a 58% increase. ADR rose from around $250 to $274 per night.
Breckenridge, CO: 30.5% in October to 43.0% in November, a 41% increase. ADR moved from roughly $355 to $444.
Vail/Avon, CO: 25.6% in October to 37.6% in November, a 47% increase. ADR climbed from around $381 to $455.
Winter Park/Idaho Springs, CO: 33.6% in October to 42.2% in November, a 26% increase.
Lake Tahoe, CA/NV: 29.3% in October to 37.9% in November, a 29% increase. ADR moved from roughly $387 to $418 per night.
Big Bear, CA: 33.7% in October to 41.4% in November, a 23% increase.
Mammoth Lakes, CA: 34.6% in October to 39.7% in November, a 15% increase. ADR rose from roughly $252 to $321.
Aspen/Snowmass, CO: 37.8% in October to 42.8% in November, a 13% increase. ADR climbed from around $508 to $628.

Stay with me here, because the percentage gains can feel misleading. A market jumping from 28% to 44% is impressive in relative terms, but 44% occupancy is still below many year-round markets. The more relevant question for investors is whether that occupancy level, combined with a rising ADR, produces strong November revenue. For ski towns specifically, the answer is generally yes, because the ADR expansion compounds the occupancy gain. The depth on that sits in the StaySTRA Analyzer for your specific market.

What the Thanksgiving period really represents for ski markets is the opening shot of winter season. Properties that are properly positioned, with a 3-night minimum, Thanksgiving pricing applied, and calendar availability locked in, tend to do very well. Properties that treat November like October, holding their shoulder-season rates and leaving minimum stays at one or two nights, often underperform what the data would suggest is possible.

Market Type 2: Warm Coastal and Snowbird Markets (The Other Winners)

Forty years of watching data patterns has taught me to always look for the surprise in the secondary table. And the warm coastal markets in November are exactly that kind of surprise.

While summer beach markets are winding down, the warm-weather destinations that attract snowbirds and winter-escape travelers are winding up. Thanksgiving weekend sits right at the inflection point when that transition accelerates. StaySTRA data for November 2025 versus October 2025:

Naples, FL: 48.5% in October to 58.1% in November, a 20% increase. ADR rose from roughly $239 to $294.
San Juan, PR: 44.1% in October to 54.9% in November, a 24% increase.
Key West, FL: 49.0% in October to 57.2% in November, a 17% increase. ADR climbed from around $433 to $495.
Coachella Valley, CA: 44.0% in October to 52.5% in November, a 19% increase. ADR rose from roughly $384 to $412.

These are markets where Thanksgiving demand and the broader November snowbird arrival overlap. The guest profile skews older and is less price-sensitive than the summer family traveler. These guests are often booking longer stays, not just the four-day weekend, which means the full November performance compounds in a way that pure occupancy numbers do not fully capture. Run your market in the StaySTRA Analyzer to see the full November profile for warm coastal markets.

Market Type 3: Cabin and Mountain Getaway Markets (High Baseline, Moderate Fade)

Gatlinburg and the Smoky Mountain cabin belt peak in October during fall foliage season, often reaching occupancy levels that rival any summer market in the country. The question for Thanksgiving is whether they hold.

StaySTRA data for Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge: 72.4% occupancy in October 2025, dropping to 59.9% in November. Asheville, NC logged 63.8% in October and 54.1% in November. These are not Thanksgiving spikes in the traditional sense. They are very elevated baselines that stay elevated because the cabin product continues to attract guests throughout the fall and winter transition.

Do not let that October-to-November dip concern you. A 59.9% November occupancy in Gatlinburg is still 25% above the national average for that month. Hosts in these markets are not riding a single-weekend spike. They are operating in a market with strong year-round demand. Thanksgiving weekend specifically tends to be one of the highest-priced weekends of the fall calendar in the Smokies, even if the monthly average looks like a fade from October.

This distinction matters for investors. A market like Gatlinburg rewards dynamic pricing discipline. A host who applies a flat rate through November leaves significant money on the Thanksgiving weekend itself, even if the broader monthly occupancy looks manageable.

Market Type 4: Summer Beach Markets (The November Cliff)

Summer beach markets have a November problem that Thanksgiving weekend does not fully solve. Guests who go to Destin or Gulf Shores go for warm weather and long days. Thanksgiving brings neither.

StaySTRA data for November 2025 versus October 2025 in traditional summer coastal markets:

Gulf Shores/Mobile, AL: 54.9% in October to 34.3% in November, a 38% drop.
Destin/Ft. Walton Beach, FL: 55.0% in October to 33.4% in November, a 39% drop.
Panama City, FL: 50.0% in October to 29.2% in November, a 42% drop.
Myrtle Beach, SC: 43.7% in October to 36.8% in November, a 16% drop.
Outer Banks, NC: 41.8% in October to 35.2% in November, a 16% drop.

Some Thanksgiving bookings do happen in these markets. Families who want to combine the holiday with mild coastal weather do exist. But the data makes clear that a November spike in these markets is not a structural pattern. It is whatever weekend traffic a well-positioned host can capture against a backdrop of broadly reduced demand.

If you own in these markets and are trying to capture Thanksgiving demand, the Analyzer data on your specific area is worth reviewing. Some individual properties with strong amenities and waterfront access perform well regardless. But that is the exception, not the rule for the market as a whole.

Market Type 5: Urban Markets (Year-Round Stability, Not Holiday Spikes)

Urban markets behave differently from resort and coastal markets in November. They do not spike for Thanksgiving the way ski towns do, but they also do not fall off a cliff the way summer beach markets do. The baseline just stays high.

StaySTRA data for November 2025 versus October 2025 in major urban markets:

San Francisco: 74.0% in October to 68.8% in November.
Los Angeles: 68.3% in October to 64.6% in November.
Denver: 67.2% in October to 59.7% in November.
Washington, DC: 66.6% in October to 57.5% in November.
Chicago: 63.9% in October to 57.0% in November.
Nashville: 62.9% in October to 54.4% in November.
New Orleans: 60.4% in October to 54.5% in November.

Every one of these markets lands above the national November average of 47.9%. For investors who want year-round occupancy reliability rather than holiday-spike dependence, the urban market case is straightforward. The Thanksgiving weekend itself tends to soften as family travel pulls guests out of cities, but the full month holds.

What This Means for Investors Evaluating Market Selection

The core question behind this data is about your investment thesis. Are you building for year-round occupancy, or are you building for peak-season spikes? Both are legitimate strategies, but they point toward different markets and different operational approaches.

Ski and mountain markets have the most dramatic Thanksgiving occupancy swing, which means they also have the most dramatic shoulder-season valleys. October in Vail at 25.6% occupancy is real. An investor who buys a mountain market solely on the ski-season and holiday data is not wrong, but they need to underwrite the shoulder months honestly. The markets that pair well with a ski-season thesis are the ones with a second shoulder, either summer hiking traffic, mountain biking, or proximity to a major city for weekend getaways. StaySTRA Q4 market data shows which mountain markets are carrying occupancy into the fourth quarter versus which ones are more narrowly seasonal.

Warm coastal markets offer something closer to the best of both seasonal worlds: summer beach demand and winter snowbird demand, with Thanksgiving sitting at the hinge point between them. The snowbird market analysis covers this category in more depth for investors evaluating winter-market performance.

Urban markets trade peak-season upside for floor consistency. The investor who wants a San Francisco or Denver property is accepting a lower ceiling in July in exchange for a much higher floor in November and February. Neither is a better investment in the abstract. They are different bets with different risk profiles.

Cabin markets like the Smokies run at high occupancy nearly year-round, with Thanksgiving weekend being one of their best-priced nights of the fall calendar. For investors who value predictability, a well-positioned Gatlinburg or Asheville cabin may offer the most consistent November performance of any market type in our data.

Positioning for Hosts: What to Do in the Next Five Weeks

For existing hosts in Thanksgiving-favorable markets, mid-October is the last practical window to get pricing and availability strategy right. Most of the Thanksgiving-period demand that will land in your market is already searching or will search in the coming weeks.

The specific booking timing data for your market is available in the StaySTRA Analyzer. The high-level pattern is that markets with strong Thanksgiving demand tend to fill their best inventory first, then remaining availability forces guests to either book what is left or not book at all. A 3-night minimum is standard practice in ski and cabin markets for Thanksgiving weekend. A 4-night minimum is defensible in high-demand areas. One or two night minimums on Thanksgiving typically leave revenue behind.

For hosts in summer beach markets: Thanksgiving is not the fight worth prioritizing this year. The ADR premium available on the holiday weekend rarely compensates for the overall November occupancy trajectory. The better Q4 play for warm-weather coastal hosts is the December through February snowbird window, which is where that demand actually concentrates.

The Q3 2026 market performance data provides additional context on how markets entered the fall season and which ones carried momentum into Q4.

A Note on the Lake Market Question

Lakes often get grouped with summer markets when the pattern is actually more varied. Cold-weather lake markets like Door County, WI (55.7% in October, 28.1% in November) follow the summer beach pattern and fall sharply. Warmer lake and reservoir markets show a different profile.

Lake Lanier, GA held 52.7% occupancy in November after 56.4% in October, a modest fade rather than a cliff. Lake Havasu, AZ rose from 39.9% in October to 42.1% in November, tracking with the warm Southwestern market pattern. Lake Tahoe follows ski-market logic because it sits at the intersection of mountain and lake identity.

If you own on a lake, the right question is not whether lakes spike for Thanksgiving. It is whether your specific lake has a winter identity. A Georgia or Arizona lake in November looks nothing like a Wisconsin lake in November. Here in Santa Fe I am reminded of this every fall when I watch the visitors heading for Taos versus those heading for the high desert lakes: the same season, entirely different guests.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which STR markets see the biggest Thanksgiving occupancy spike?

Ski and mountain markets in Colorado and California show the largest percentage increases from October to November based on StaySTRA data. Frisco/Silverthorne, CO jumped 58%, Vail/Avon jumped 47%, and Breckenridge jumped 41% in November 2025 versus October 2025. Warm coastal markets like Naples, FL and Key West also spike as snowbird demand begins, with increases of 17 to 24%. Classic summer beach markets (Gulf Shores, Destin, Myrtle Beach) generally fall in November rather than spike.

What is the national average STR occupancy for Thanksgiving month?

StaySTRA data across 307 U.S. markets shows a national average occupancy of 47.9% for November 2025. October 2025 averaged 52.1%. The national average masks sharp variation by market type: warm coastal and urban markets run well above 47.9% in November while ski and summer beach markets run below it. The national number is a useful baseline but not a useful benchmark for any individual market.

Do urban STR markets spike for Thanksgiving?

Urban markets generally hold well above the national average in November without a distinct Thanksgiving spike. San Francisco ran at 68.8%, Los Angeles at 64.6%, and Denver at 59.7% for November 2025. The drop from October is moderate rather than sharp. Thanksgiving weekend itself tends to soften urban markets slightly as family travel pulls visitors toward resort and destination properties, but the full-month picture remains strong.

Should STR investors buy in ski markets for the Thanksgiving demand?

Ski market Thanksgiving performance is real, but investors should underwrite the full seasonal profile. October in Vail and Breckenridge runs at 25 to 30% occupancy before the holiday spike arrives. A ski market investment thesis that models only peak-season months misses the shoulder valley. The strongest ski market investments pair Thanksgiving and ski season demand with a second summer or shoulder-season identity. Run your specific market in the StaySTRA Analyzer to see the full 12-month occupancy curve.

When do hosts need to finalize Thanksgiving pricing and minimum stays?

With Thanksgiving 2026 falling on November 26, the active search window for that weekend is already underway as of mid-October. Most demand for a given holiday weekend concentrates in the six to eight weeks before travel. October is the last practical window to adjust minimum stays, apply Thanksgiving rate premiums, and confirm availability. Waiting until November to make these changes means competing for guests who have already booked elsewhere.

We do our best to keep our data accurate and up to date, but markets move fast and we are only human. Always verify current figures directly with local sources before making investment decisions.

Run your specific market in the StaySTRA Analyzer to see how Thanksgiving occupancy benchmarks against year-round averages.

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Positioning decisions for Thanksgiving and Q4 depend on data that goes deeper than monthly averages. The Analyzer shows your market’s occupancy by month, compares it to similar markets, and lets you benchmark where you stand as the holiday season approaches.

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