The Best STR Markets for Snowbird Investors in 2026 Where Winter Demand Actually Holds

Florida’s Naples recorded 86.8% STR occupancy in February 2026. Think about that number for a moment. While the Smoky Mountains and Outer Banks were running sub-50% in the same month, snowbirds were filling coastal Gulf Coast rentals to near-capacity. That is not a coincidence and it is not a fluke. It is what happens every winter in the markets this article covers, and it is the reason smart investors have been building quiet snowbird portfolios while everyone else chases summer demand.

I pulled up the winter occupancy data at my desk in Santa Fe over a cup of black coffee last week, and what I found confirmed everything I have watched develop over forty years of market research. I have spent the last several weeks pulling winter occupancy data from the StaySTRA national market database specifically looking for this pattern: markets where November through March occupancy holds strong or actually accelerates while the rest of the country fades. Six markets came out of that analysis with compelling data. The 2026 STR market is full of seasonal pockets that most investors overlook, and the snowbird window is the most underappreciated of all of them.

The timing matters right now. Investors who want to capture the November booking window need to close in October. If you are researching snowbird markets in late September, you are at the front edge of the optimal acquisition window, not behind it.

What Makes a Snowbird STR Market Different

Most STR markets are slaves to their dominant season. A beach house in Destin earns most of its revenue from June through August. A ski cabin in Breckenridge earns its year from December through March. Both of those are fine models. But the challenge for investors is the trough: what does the property do for the other seven months?

Snowbird markets flip that problem. Their dominant demand is winter. The guests are not vacation seekers chasing sunshine for a week. They are retirees and near-retirees from Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, and Ontario who rent for four to twelve weeks at a stretch, often booking in the summer for the coming winter. Longer stays, higher repeat rates, and a predictable seasonal calendar make these markets behave differently from traditional vacation rental destinations.

Florida draws an estimated one million seasonal winter residents annually, swelling certain coastal counties by double-digit percentages from November through March. Arizona pulls roughly 500,000 snowbirds at its peak, concentrated in the greater Phoenix and Tucson metros. That demand has to sleep somewhere. Increasingly, it sleeps in short-term rentals. The length-of-stay data in our database confirms it: Scottsdale’s average booking length hits 6.6 nights in January, well above its summer baseline.

Don’t let the label scare you. Snowbird rentals are not retirement homes. They are furnished vacation properties that happen to attract a longer-staying, lower-maintenance guest profile for five months of the year. For the other seven months, the same properties attract spring break travelers, festival weekenders, and golf and tennis enthusiasts.

The Six Markets

1. Scottsdale/Phoenix Metro, Arizona

StaySTRA data shows Scottsdale running 63.1% average occupancy over the trailing twelve months, with an average daily rate of $231 and 33,886 active listings across the Phoenix-Scottsdale metro. That annual average is already strong. What makes Scottsdale a snowbird play is what happens in the first quarter: occupancy climbs to 65.8% in January, then pushes to 79.7% in February and holds there through March. ADR follows the same arc, rising from $240 in January to $320 by March. That February-March window is when snowbirds from the Midwest and Canada arrive in force, and the market reflects it cleanly in the data.

The Phoenix metro draws visitors year-round for spring training, golf, and corporate events, which means Scottsdale avoids the brutal summer trough that hits more isolated snowbird markets. Even July and August, the heat months when locals flee, still produce occupancy in the mid-50s because the convention and business travel market does not disappear. Think of Scottsdale like a restaurant with a loyal lunch crowd year-round and a packed dinner rush from November through March. The revenue does not collapse between seasons; it simply normalizes. Use the StaySTRA Analyzer to run current projections for specific Scottsdale properties, and visit the Scottsdale market page for up-to-date headline metrics.

Arizona’s preemption law (ARS 9-500.39) prohibits municipalities from banning STRs outright, which provides a regulatory floor that few other states match. Scottsdale requires a permit and charges a 12.95% occupancy tax. Enforcement is classified as strict in our database, meaning the permit and tax compliance expectations are real. For investors, the protection against ban risk is significant; the compliance burden is manageable.

2. Naples, Florida

Naples is a smaller market by listing count (10,195 active listings) but it produces the second-highest ADR of the Florida snowbird markets in our dataset, behind Sarasota. The trailing twelve-month average ADR comes in at $312, with occupancy averaging 55.4% annually. Narrow those numbers to the snowbird season and the picture sharpens: January sits at 64.7% occupancy, February leaps to 86.8%, and March holds at 79.5%. February ADR reaches $354, and March pushes to $390. That is not a gentle seasonal lift. That is a market that nearly doubles its winter density from its fall baseline.

Naples attracts a wealthier snowbird demographic than most Florida markets. The typical winter renter here is not looking for a basic two-bedroom condo at the beach. They want full-size homes, private pools, and proximity to the Naples waterfront dining scene. Properties that deliver that experience command the kind of ADR this market produces. Stay with me here, because this matters for acquisition strategy: the Naples market rewards quality over quantity. A well-furnished four-bedroom home near the waterfront will consistently outperform a standard investor condo in the same zip code during snowbird season. The full month-by-month revenue curve and the breakdowns by property tier are available in the StaySTRA Analyzer for members. The Naples market page has the current headline data.

Florida’s statewide preemption framework prevents outright STR bans at the local level in most cases. Naples permits are required and the occupancy tax rate is 11%. Enforcement is classified as moderate, a meaningful contrast to some of the stricter Florida markets further north.

3. Sarasota, Florida

Sarasota carries the highest market score (64.5) among all six markets in this analysis, driven by standout scores across rental demand (70.0), revenue growth (80.4), and investability (74.5). StaySTRA data shows 22,069 active listings, a trailing twelve-month average occupancy of 61.0%, and an average daily rate of $340. Those headline numbers are good on their own terms. The snowbird data makes them better: February occupancy hits 86.8%, March lands at 84.9%, and the ADR in March reaches $395.

Sarasota is often described as a cultural destination, and that description carries real meaning for STR investors. The winter snowbird profile here overlaps with arts patrons, theater-goers, and the Ringling Museum crowd in a way that creates demand not only from traditional northern retirees but from affluent second-home renters who want cultural programming alongside beach access. Lido Key and Siesta Key properties draw guests who plan their trips around the Sarasota season as much as the weather. That diversity of winter demand types is exactly what an investor wants from a snowbird market.

The Sarasota location page tracks live headline metrics, and the prior Sarasota STR market analysis covers the longer historical context. Florida’s occupancy tax in Sarasota County is 6%, among the higher tourist development tax rates in the state (Florida DOR). Enforcement is classified as strict in our database, which reflects the active permit environment and the robust compliance expectations the county maintains.

4. Fort Myers / Cape Coral, Florida

The Fort Myers and Cape Coral market (combined metro in our database) offers a compelling occupancy story. February 2026 occupancy reached 86.0%, with March holding at 80.7%. The trailing twelve-month averages reflect a more moderate baseline: 55.9% occupancy and $270 ADR across 19,741 active listings. That spread between the annual average and the winter peak is the opportunity. An investor who understands the seasonality can price aggressively during the five-month window and use shoulder months for renovations, personal use, or modest pricing to maintain calendar continuity.

Lee County, which covers Fort Myers and Cape Coral, sustained significant damage from Hurricane Ian in September 2022. The STR market here has rebuilt, and the rebuilding created an interesting dynamic: newer, better-constructed properties with modern finishes now dominate the upper tier of the rental pool. For investors looking to acquire in a market that combines strong snowbird demand with pricing still below pre-storm peaks in some segments, this metro deserves a close look. The data in our system reflects the post-rebuild market, and the numbers are performing. The Fort Myers market page has the current picture.

Lee County’s transient accommodation tax rate is 5%, tied with Collier County (Naples) for the lowest tourist development tax of the Florida markets in this analysis (Florida DOR), which reduces a cost friction point for guests and keeps nightly rates competitive at the same net host revenue. Enforcement is classified as moderate.

5. Palm Springs, California

Palm Springs is the outlier in this group, and I mean that in a good way. The trailing twelve-month average ADR is $430, the highest of any market here, with 16,999 active listings and an annual average occupancy of 49.3%. That occupancy figure is lower than the Florida markets, but the ADR premium is substantial. The snowbird math works differently here: February occupancy reaches 69.9% at $415 ADR, and March pushes to 72.4% at $499, just ahead of the April Coachella and Stagecoach festival demand that overlaps with the tail end of snowbird season in a way unique to the Coachella Valley.

Palm Springs is not a traditional snowbird destination in the same demographic sense as Naples or Scottsdale. Its winter visitors are a mix of retirees escaping cold, arts and culture tourists, and the festival crowd. That diversity of demand types means the five-month window produces strong revenue through multiple mechanisms, not just snowbird migration. The prior Palm Springs STR market deep-dive covers the Coachella seasonality dynamics in detail worth reading before you buy.

The regulatory environment is the most restrictive of the six markets here. Palm Springs caps rentals at 26 contracts per year for permits issued after November 2022, while older permits keep a 36-contract cap after the City Council canceled a planned reduction (The Palm Springs Post), and applies a 20% neighborhood density cap. The occupancy tax is 11.5%. Enforcement is classified as strict. For investors, the supply ceiling actually supports long-term ADR, but the operating model requires active compliance management. Run the numbers carefully for any specific address using the StaySTRA Analyzer before committing.

6. Tucson, Arizona

Tucson is the value play in this analysis. A trailing twelve-month average ADR of $158 and average monthly revenue of $2,629 across 7,536 listings will not generate the headlines of a Naples or Palm Springs. But the winter occupancy data tells a compelling story for price-point investors: February 2026 occupancy hit 82.6%, one of the strongest monthly readings in this analysis, and the overall occupancy of 59.6% LTM is respectable for a mid-size market. The Arizona snowbird market is less concentrated in Scottsdale than people assume. Tucson draws a significant segment of snowbird demand, particularly from western Canada and the Pacific Northwest, for whom the Tucson climate and lower cost of living make the destination more practical than the Scottsdale price premium.

Tucson’s lower price point is its strength for first-time snowbird investors. Acquisition costs are materially lower than Scottsdale, and the carry math works at lower ADR. For an investor whose goal is to deploy $350,000 to $450,000 into a property that generates occupancy above 60% annually with a winter spike above 80%, Tucson deserves serious consideration alongside the flashier Florida markets. Arizona’s statewide preemption law protects Tucson hosts from outright ban risk just as it protects Scottsdale, and Tucson’s enforcement classification is minimal, meaning the regulatory friction is low. The occupancy tax of 16.05% is the highest of the six markets here, so factor that into your underwriting. The Tucson market page has current headline metrics.

Investor Considerations

DSCR Financing and the Snowbird Premium

Think of a DSCR loan like a rental property credit score: the property earns its own financing based on what it generates, not on what you earn at your day job. DSCR loans underwrite based on the property’s rental income rather than the borrower’s personal income. For snowbird market investors, this creates an opportunity and an important caution in the same breath. The opportunity: a property that generates peak-season revenue from November through March, with strong occupancy numbers to document, can qualify at attractive DSCR ratios. The caution: lenders using trailing twelve-month income statements will see the full annual average, not just the snowbird window. Make sure any DSCR underwriting you review uses a full twelve months of data, not a partial year. The STR market analysis guide covers DSCR underwriting considerations in more depth.

Property Profile by Market

The typical snowbird STR property looks different by geography. In Florida (Naples, Sarasota, Fort Myers), the strong performers are single-family homes with private pools, three to four bedrooms, in neighborhoods within twenty minutes of water access. Snowbirds traveling as couples or with family members want full kitchen facilities, screened lanais, and the ability to cook in rather than eat out every night. In Scottsdale and Tucson, the strong performers skew toward detached homes with pools and covered outdoor spaces that make use of the desert climate year-round. In Palm Springs, pool homes with indoor-outdoor flow dominate the high-ADR tier, and many of the top performers are mid-century modern properties that photograph exceptionally well for the platform audience that market attracts.

Booking Windows and Snowbird Patterns

Snowbirds book further in advance than vacation travelers. The Scottsdale data shows average booking lead time of 50 to 52 days in November and December, compared to the national short-term rental average of 30 to 35 days. That advance booking pattern means your November through March calendar can fill in the summer and early fall, which smooths the uncertainty that comes with traditional vacation markets booking in the last 30 days. It also means that investors who acquire in October and list immediately can begin capturing December and January snowbird bookings before the end of the year.

Top 3 Market Picks: Ranked by Headline Metrics

After reviewing all six markets against the StaySTRA data, here is where I would direct an investor specifically targeting snowbird demand in 2026.

1. Sarasota, Florida. The market score of 64.5 is the highest in this group by a significant margin, and the revenue growth score of 80.4 suggests the market is still moving in the right direction. The 86.8% February occupancy, $340 LTM ADR, and 22,069 active listings give investors both depth of data and a market large enough to support acquisitions without hitting thin supply. Sarasota’s combination of cultural programming, Gulf Coast beaches, and a high-income snowbird demographic makes it the most durable long-term hold in this analysis.

2. Naples, Florida. If Sarasota is the balanced choice, Naples is the premium play. A $312 LTM ADR and an 86.8% February occupancy rate from a market with only 10,195 listings means the supply is tighter relative to demand than Sarasota or Fort Myers. Tighter supply at high ADR is exactly the dynamic an investor wants in a rental market. The trade-off is acquisition cost: Naples home values are among the highest in Florida outside Miami, and the underwriting has to pencil at that price point. For investors who can absorb the acquisition cost, the revenue profile is among the strongest of any snowbird market in the country.

3. Scottsdale/Phoenix Metro, Arizona. Scottsdale earns the third spot because of its year-round performance floor. A 63.1% annual occupancy rate means this market does not require the investor to bet entirely on the winter window. The Arizona preemption law provides a level of regulatory stability that the Florida markets, despite their strong state framework, cannot fully match at the city level. The 33,886 active listings mean the market is large enough to absorb acquisitions across a wide range of price points. For investors who want snowbird demand as a seasonal uplift on top of a year-round performing market, Scottsdale is the cleaner answer.

If you are ready to model specific properties in any of these markets, the StaySTRA Analyzer lets you run occupancy, ADR, and revenue projections against current market data. The location pages for Naples, Sarasota, Fort Myers, Scottsdale, Palm Springs, and Tucson each carry current headline metrics updated from our database. The investors who do the work in September and October are the ones who own the right properties before the snowbirds arrive in November.

We do our best to keep our data accurate and up to date, but markets move fast and we are only human. Always verify current figures directly with local sources before making investment decisions.