Summer 2026 STR Booking Demand: Which U.S. Markets Are Already Showing Record Pre-Season Reservations

Jackson Hole, Wyoming is sitting at a 45.5% forward occupancy rate for this summer, the highest of any U.S. short-term rental market heading into the June through August window. That is not a trailing metric or a year-end average. That is how many nights are already booked, right now, with summer still six weeks away.

Think of forward occupancy like a fuel gauge. At 45.5%, Jackson Hole’s tank is nearly half full before the car has left the driveway. And it is not alone. Nine other markets are already above 38%, including Cape Cod at 44% and Door County at 42.6%. If you are a host in one of these markets still tweaking your summer rates, the window to optimize is shrinking by the day. If you are an investor watching from the sidelines, the data is telling you where travelers have already committed their dollars.

But summer 2026 is not a normal summer. The FIFA World Cup kicks off June 11 in Mexico City and runs through July 19 in New Jersey, and that tournament is reshaping demand geography across the country. As our Q1 2026 market performance analysis showed, the supply-demand gap was already narrowing heading into spring. Now, with the World Cup layered on top, the summer picture is splitting into clear winners and losers.

The Top 10 Summer Markets by Forward Occupancy

Forward occupancy measures the percentage of available nights already booked for a future period. Here are the 10 U.S. markets with the highest rates for June through August 2026:

Seven of the top 10 are coastal or lakefront markets, no major metro made the list, and a mountain town is leading the pack. That last part is what I find most telling after 40 years of watching data.

Jackson Hole topping this list is a genuine shift. Realtor.com’s executive editor Charlie Lankston called it “a fascinating shift” where travelers are “choosing to trade the ocean for the mountains.” StaySTRA data supports this. In our coastal versus mountain market comparison, mountain markets have been steadily closing the summer gap with coastal destinations since 2023.

Stay with me here, because the composition matters for pricing. These are all drive-to vacation markets. Door County is a weekend trip from Chicago. Cape Cod is a weekend trip from Boston. Guests in these markets book early because they know from experience that the good weeks fill up. That is repeat visitors locking in preferred dates, not speculative browsers.

The FIFA World Cup Effect: Six Weeks That Are Reshaping Summer

The 2026 FIFA World Cup runs June 11 to July 19 across 16 host cities, 11 in the U.S. The demand numbers coming out of these cities are unlike anything the STR market has produced for a single event. This is not a one-city spike like the Super Bowl. This is 11 cities simultaneously, for 39 days.

Here is what forward booking data looks like for host cities, measured at roughly six months before kickoff:

Don’t let that Dallas number scare you into thinking every listing there will earn 500x its normal rate. Think of it like the first drops of water hitting a dry riverbed: early bookings concentrate in premium properties near the venue, at premium prices, from travelers planning early. As June approaches, demand spreads outward. But the signal is unmistakable.

The complication in Dallas is the ongoing STR ban legal battle. If the Texas Supreme Court enforces the ban before the tournament, supply shrinks and prices climb higher for remaining legal listings. Use the StaySTRA calculator to model both scenarios for any Dallas property you are evaluating.

Spillover Markets: Non-Host Cities Capturing World Cup Demand

Demand is not just flowing to host cities. It is spilling into adjacent markets, particularly on the East Coast. Montclair, New Jersey, about 15 miles from MetLife Stadium, is showing a 169% occupancy increase during group stage dates versus last year. Princeton, 50 miles south, has listings at $6,000 per night (a 140% increase). Foxborough, Massachusetts, between Boston and Providence, is seeing rates above $2,000 per night.

Adjacent markets often have looser STR regulations, more inventory, and lower base prices. For investors, the spillover zone around World Cup cities is where the math can work without the regulatory risk of the host city itself. Our adjacent cities regulation analysis breaks this down city by city.

Where the Summer Numbers Are Soft

Not every market is riding the summer demand wave. And this is important, because a rising national tide does not lift every boat equally. Some boats have taken on water.

Nationally, STR occupancy fell 13% year over year in early 2026, according to PriceLabs data. Supply growth (4.6% projected for 2026) is outpacing demand growth (4.1%). That gap is small at the national level, but in certain markets, it is a canyon.

Houston: The World Cup City With a Supply Problem

StaySTRA data shows Houston carrying 9,325 active listings at a 34% occupancy rate as of February 2026. Supply expanded 34% between 2024 and 2025, from roughly 7,400 to nearly 10,000 listings. The market’s peak occupancy month is March, at just 52%. For context, that peak number is lower than Atlanta’s current rate of 57%.

Houston will see a World Cup demand spike, but the market has to absorb a lot of new inventory to convert that into meaningful per-listing revenue. StaySTRA’s Houston market page has the full breakdown.

Nashville: High ADR, Declining Occupancy

Nashville tells a different story. StaySTRA data shows 5,988 active listings with a $335 average daily rate, one of the highest in the Southeast. But occupancy has been on a steady decline: from 70.4% in 2021 to 46.5% in 2025, with February 2026 sitting at 39%.

Nashville’s summer months are its second strongest season. June historically runs 62.8% occupancy at $314 ADR, generating about $6,115 per listing. Those are respectable numbers. But the market peaked at 7,388 listings in 2023 and has since contracted to 5,988, a correction that signals some operators have already exited. The hosts who remain are competing for a smaller share of nights at higher prices. Our Nashville market page tracks this in real time.

Miami: International Demand vs. Structural Oversupply

Miami is the most complex summer 2026 story. Forward World Cup RevPAR is 70 times higher than this point last year, driven by international travelers. But the market carries 8,743 active listings at 49% occupancy, down from 70.6% in 2021. Average monthly revenue has dropped from about $6,133 to $4,461 per listing. The World Cup will spike June and July revenue, but the underlying trajectory has been sliding for three years. StaySTRA’s Miami market page shows the full picture.

ADR Is Doing the Heavy Lifting This Summer

Across the national STR market, a structural shift is underway that every host and investor needs to understand: rate growth, not demand growth, is driving revenue.

In January 2026, national ADR hit $246.62, up 3.6% year over year. Occupancy, meanwhile, dipped 1.5% to 48.4%. RevPAR still came in positive at $119.27 (up 2.1%) because the rate increase more than offset the occupancy decline. Forward data shows ADR pacing 9% higher for April and mid-single-digit increases through June.

Think of it like selling fewer concert tickets at a higher price per seat. You can still hit your revenue target, but you have less margin for error. Hosts in soft markets who drop rates to chase occupancy risk a race to the bottom. Hosts who hold rates need fewer bookings to hit their number.

Luxury-tier ADR is up 5.2% while budget-tier ADR actually declined 0.3%. Travelers are spending more per trip on fewer trips, and they are choosing bigger properties when they do. For top forward-occupancy markets with premium price points, this is a tailwind. For oversupplied markets, rate gains depend on discipline across thousands of competing hosts.

What This Means for Hosts and Investors Right Now

Summer is six weeks away. From my desk here in Santa Fe, with a fresh cup of black coffee and these numbers in front of me, here is what the data is telling us.

If you are in a top-10 forward occupancy market: Your pricing power is real but not infinite. At 40%+ forward occupancy, you still have 55-60% of summer nights to fill. Check your competitive set on StaySTRA’s analyzer tool and calibrate rates to your specific submarket.

If you are in a World Cup host city: The tournament window is a once-in-a-generation pricing event. But do not let tournament-date pricing spill into non-tournament weeks. A guest searching for a July 25 weekend in Miami does not care about the World Cup.

If you are in a soft market: Do not chase the bottom. Houston at 34% occupancy is a market where dropping rates by $20 will not meaningfully move booking volume but will cut revenue. Pet-friendly properties are commanding a $17+ ADR premium nationally. Differentiate rather than discount.

For investors evaluating acquisitions, the data favors supply-constrained markets with proven demand. Jackson Hole, Cape Cod, and Door County share that profile. Oversupplied markets like Houston and Nashville share the opposite one. Larger properties (five-plus bedrooms) are outperforming smaller units, with six-plus bedroom bookings up 12.6% year over year.

If you are running acquisition numbers, StaySTRA’s market analyzer pulls real occupancy, ADR, and revenue data for any U.S. market. DSCR loans let you qualify based on the property’s projected income rather than personal income. Our STR financing guide explains the math.

We do our best to keep our data accurate and up to date, but markets move fast and we are only human. Always verify current figures directly with local sources before making investment decisions.

Run the Numbers for Any U.S. Market

Every market in this article has a dedicated page on StaySTRA with real-time occupancy, ADR, and revenue data. Visit the StaySTRA Analyzer to pull the numbers for any market you are evaluating, whether it is one of the top 10 summer performers, a World Cup host city, or the under-the-radar market you have been watching quietly.