How STR Markets Performed in Q1 2026. What StaySTRA Data Shows Going Into Summer

National STR RevPAR hit $119.27 in January 2026, a 2.1% year-over-year gain, and it came almost entirely from pricing power rather than fuller calendars. Think of it like this: hosts charged more per night (ADR up 3.6% to $246.62), but the share of nights actually booked slipped to 48.4%, down 1.5 points from the same month last year. The market is earning more per available night, but fewer nights are filling up.

After 40 years of reading data tables (I started back when they came on paper printouts from the Census Bureau), I’ve learned that a number in isolation can mislead you. When a RevPAR increase rides on rate alone while occupancy softens, you’re looking at a market where pricing has a ceiling and supply is the story underneath. That’s exactly where the U.S. short-term rental market sits entering summer 2026.

I pulled StaySTRA data across every FIFA World Cup host city, then stepped back to compare performance by market type. What I found is a market that’s splitting in two: markets where fundamentals are holding, and markets where supply growth is quietly eroding returns.

How FIFA World Cup Host Cities Performed Heading into 2026

With the FIFA World Cup now weeks away, investors have been watching these 11 host markets closely. Here’s what StaySTRA data shows about each one.

The table below uses StaySTRA’s latest trailing-twelve-month data for each market, along with the most recent monthly snapshots where available. RevPAR is calculated from ADR and occupancy rate.

*New York City’s 47 active tracked listings reflect the impact of Local Law 18, which dramatically restricted STR operations starting in 2023. Those 47 listings command a $300 ADR and 71% occupancy precisely because supply is so constrained.

What stands out. The top five by RevPAR are all either coastal gateways or cities with tight regulatory environments. New York’s $213 RevPAR leads, but it’s an outlier driven by supply scarcity (47 listings). Boston tells a more instructive story: 73.3% occupancy, $263 ADR, and a healthy supply base of 2,952 listings. That’s organic demand strength, not regulatory compression.

At the bottom, Houston ($92 RevPAR), Philadelphia ($91), and Atlanta ($97) share a thread: high listing counts relative to demand. Atlanta has 13,156 active listings competing for 53% occupancy. That’s a lot of inventory sitting empty on any given night.

Dallas is a particular puzzle. Its February 2026 snapshot showed 35% occupancy, $221 ADR, and $2,136 in monthly revenue. That’s below where most DSCR loan underwriting pencils. The ongoing STR ban case before the Texas Supreme Court is compounding the supply-demand imbalance.

Stay with me here, because the FIFA story gets more interesting when you look at forward bookings. Jackson Hole leads all U.S. markets for summer 2026 bookings at 45.5% already booked for June through August. Among World Cup cities, Kansas City and the Dallas-Fort Worth metro are seeing increased booking velocity as hotel inventory tightens. Airbnb is offering $750 host incentives in World Cup markets to bring new inventory online.

National STR Performance in Early 2026: The Numbers Behind the Headlines

Let’s step back from the host cities and look at the full picture. The national numbers tell a story that I’d describe as “stable but squeezed.” The headline metrics from January 2026:

• Occupancy: 48.4%, down 1.5% year over year
• ADR: $246.62, up 3.6% year over year
• RevPAR: $119.27, up 2.1% year over year
• Available listings: 1.68 million, up 4.2%
• Total nights booked: up 5.5% year over year

Supply up 4.2%, occupancy down 1.5%. That’s the compression pattern we flagged in our March 2026 analysis. But the decline is narrowing. In 2024, supply was growing at roughly 8%. By January 2026, it’s 4.2%. That’s not recovery, but it’s stabilization.

The demand side looks healthy if you separate it from supply. Total nights booked grew 5.5% year over year. People are booking at record pace. The problem is more rentals competing for those bookings. Think of it like a pie that’s growing, but the number of slices is growing faster.

ADR rose 3.6% to $246.62, and that’s doing real work. RevPAR climbed 2.1% despite the occupancy drop because rate increases more than offset fewer booked nights. Hosts who price well are finding a path to revenue growth. Hosts who compete on price alone are feeling the squeeze.

For 2026 overall, available listings are projected to reach 1.77 million (up 4.6%), demand is expected to grow 4.1%, and RevPAR should grow a modest 0.6%. The gap between supply and demand growth is narrowing, the clearest sign that the correction begun in late 2022 may be approaching its floor.

Q1 Performance by Market Type: Mountain, Coastal, Urban, and What StaySTRA Data Reveals

Not all market types had the same Q1. In fact, the performance gap between the strongest and weakest categories is as wide as I’ve seen since I started tracking this data for StaySTRA. Here’s how each category performed based on representative markets from our database.

Mountain and Ski Markets: The Clear Q1 Winners

If you invested in a mountain or ski market, Q1 was your payday. These markets are inherently seasonal, and ski season (December through March) is when they earn the bulk of their annual revenue. StaySTRA data shows the scale of that earnings power.

Steamboat Springs is the standout. An 85% occupancy at $573 per night translates to over $11,200 in monthly revenue, roughly triple the national average. Vail’s $843 ADR is extraordinary on a per-night basis, though its occupancy lagged Steamboat slightly at 78%, reflecting its concentration in the luxury tier.

Coastal Markets: A Tale of Two Shores

Coastal markets showed the widest spread of any category. The warm-weather coastal markets with year-round appeal (South Florida, the Keys, Palm Springs) performed well. The seasonal coastal markets (Myrtle Beach, Gulf Shores, Virginia Beach) showed classic off-season softness.

Key West is a league of its own. A 90% occupancy at $559 per night produces revenue that competes with the best ski towns. Sarasota posted a 93% occupancy, the highest of any market in any category during Q1.

Don’t let the Myrtle Beach numbers scare you. A $148 ADR and 44% occupancy is exactly what seasonal beach markets do in winter. By summer, occupancy jumps above 80% and ADR climbs above $200. I keep a Pueblo pottery mug on my desk that says “Patience is data,” and Myrtle Beach during Q1 is a perfect illustration.

Urban Markets: Supply Pressure Continues

Urban markets remain the most challenged category heading into summer 2026, and the reasons are structural. Supply continues to grow in most large metros, regulatory friction adds cost and complexity, and urban STRs compete directly with hotels in a way that coastal and mountain properties don’t.

Scottsdale is the exception. It functions more like a resort destination than a typical urban market, and its Q1 numbers reflect that seasonal peak. Take Scottsdale out, and the remaining cities average roughly $215 ADR and 52% occupancy.

Denver’s 42% occupancy is the lowest of the group, a city where supply grew substantially through 2023 and 2024 and demand hasn’t caught up. Nashville’s 47% tells a similar story.

The Markets That Stood Out in Q1

Pulling from the full StaySTRA dataset, here are the five markets that posted the strongest Q1 RevPAR performance:

1. Vail, CO ($658 RevPAR): The highest per-night rate in the dataset combined with strong ski-season occupancy.
2. Key West, FL ($503 RevPAR): Year-round tropical demand with the supply constraints of an island economy.
3. Park City, UT ($502 RevPAR): Benefited from both Sundance Film Festival in January and consistent ski demand through March.
4. Steamboat Springs, CO ($487 RevPAR): The highest occupancy of any ski market (85%) kept RevPAR near the top despite a lower ADR than Vail.
5. Breckenridge, CO ($464 RevPAR): Consistent 85% occupancy and $546 ADR made it one of the most reliable Q1 performers in the country.

Four of the five are mountain and ski markets. Key West is the lone coastal entry, earning its spot at number two because its off-season barely exists.

Where the Numbers Were Softest

On the other end: Myrtle Beach ($65 RevPAR), Denver ($75), Philadelphia ($91), Houston ($92), and Atlanta ($97). Houston’s 34% supply growth through 2025 is the clearest example of oversupply pressure. Atlanta’s 13,156 listings competing for 53% occupancy tells a similar story.

But be fair to these markets. Q1 is structurally the weakest quarter for non-ski, non-tropical destinations. These investors bought for July, not January. Treat these numbers as context, not a verdict.

What This Means for Summer 2026 Positioning

Here’s where I put on my forecasting hat (figuratively, though I do have a very nice one from a conference in Albuquerque).

1. The supply-demand gap is narrowing. Supply growth of 4.2% in January 2026 is half the 8% rate from early 2024. Demand growth of 5.5% actually exceeded supply growth. If that holds, occupancy could stabilize by late summer for the first time since the correction began in late 2022.

2. Larger properties are pulling ahead. Bookings for 6-plus bedroom homes grew 12.6% year over year in January 2026. Three-bedroom properties grew 7.5%. The market is rewarding properties that serve groups.

3. The FIFA World Cup will test host city infrastructure. Cities with strong fundamentals (Boston, San Francisco, Seattle) are positioned to absorb demand without crashing rates. Markets with already-soft occupancy (Houston, Atlanta, Dallas) need World Cup demand to materialize, because their Q1 baselines leave little margin for error.

For investors evaluating acquisitions, the data suggests two lanes. Buy into supply-constrained markets with durable demand, or buy into soft markets at a discount banking on recovery. Both are defensible, but they require very different DSCR underwriting assumptions.

We do our best to keep our data accurate and up to date, but markets move fast and we are only human. Always verify current figures directly with local sources before making investment decisions.

Want to see how these numbers translate to a specific property in your target market? The StaySTRA Analyzer lets you plug in an address and get occupancy, ADR, and revenue projections based on the same dataset behind this analysis. Whether you’re evaluating a mountain cabin in Breckenridge or a condo near a World Cup venue, start with the data.