Short-Term Rental Revenue Recovery in 2026. Which Markets Have Bounced Back to Peak Levels (And Which Have Not)

One in three short-term rental markets tracked by StaySTRA has matched or surpassed its 2023 peak occupancy in Q3 2026. Think of it like a recovering patient: the vital signs are trending the right direction, but the chart looks different floor by floor. Some patients have been discharged and are back to work. Others are still in the ward. A few are not yet off supplemental oxygen.

The correction that ran through 2023 and 2024 hit different market types with very different severity. As we move through the final quarter of 2026, the question investors are actually asking is not “how did Q3 compare to last Q3?” It is: “Are we back? Have the markets I care about recovered, and is now the time to buy?”

StaySTRA’s database covers 326 individual markets. Comparing Q3 2026 occupancy to the same period in 2023, the picture that emerges is more nuanced than any single national headline captures.

How We Measured Recovery

A brief note on methodology, because it matters. Year-over-year comparisons (2026 vs. 2025) are useful for measuring momentum, but they do not answer the question investors are really asking. The right comparison is against the last peak. For most markets, that peak came in 2022 and 2023, as post-pandemic leisure travel demand hit its high-water mark at roughly the same time that short-term rental supply growth was still accelerating.

We used Q3 (July) as the comparison period because summer represents the seasonal peak for the majority of STR markets, making it the fairest like-for-like window. We compared July 2026 occupancy against July 2023 for each of the 326 markets in our database, then sorted markets by how far above or below their 2023 peak they sit today. All figures below come from StaySTRA’s database unless noted otherwise. Full Q3 2026 market performance data is available here if you want the year-over-year view alongside this peak comparison.

If you want to check where a specific market stands right now before you make any move, the StaySTRA Analyzer runs current data against historical baselines for any market in our coverage area. Run your market in the StaySTRA Analyzer.

The National Picture: Occupancy Is Close, ADR Has Already Recovered

Nationally, the average STR occupancy rate across our tracked markets was 67.0% in Q3 2026, compared to 68.6% in Q3 2023. That is a 1.6 percentage point gap. Modest. Narrower than it looked 18 months ago.

Here is what makes that occupancy gap interesting: it is hiding a stronger story on the revenue side. National average ADR across the StaySTRA database was $301 in Q3 2026, up from $263 in Q3 2023, a gain of 14.7%. RevPAR (the number that reflects both occupancy and rate) came in at $204 in Q3 2026 versus $183 in Q3 2023, an 11.6% increase.

What this tells you is that the revenue correction may already be over, even where the occupancy correction is not. Rates held and then climbed even as occupancy pulled back from peak. Hosts who stayed disciplined on pricing during the softer occupancy period in 2024 and early 2025 are now seeing that discipline pay off. Guests booking in 2026 are paying more per night than they did in 2023, and in many markets that rate increase more than offsets the occupancy shortfall.

AirDNA’s midyear 2026 report put the national annual occupancy figure at 57.4%, which sits just above the pre-pandemic average of 57.0%. That full-year figure runs lower than our Q3-specific comparison because winter months pull the annual average down. Both data points point the same direction: the broad market has stabilized and crossed back above pre-pandemic norms, even if it has not uniformly recaptured the 2023 summer peak.

The Markets That Have Fully Recovered: Top 10 by Peak Recovery

Of the 326 markets in our database, 109 (33%) matched or exceeded their Q3 2023 occupancy in Q3 2026. The pattern in that group is striking. The leaders are not the famous vacation destinations you might expect. They are secondary cities and mid-tier urban markets, places that did not experience the same dramatic supply surge during the post-pandemic STR boom.

The story in this group is not recovery from a correction. These markets never had the correction in the first place. Mid-sized cities like Columbus, Boise, and Springfield attracted STR listings more slowly during the 2021-2023 boom. Demand in these markets has continued growing organically as business travel, sports events, and regional tourism gradually absorbed existing inventory.

Worth noting: New York City gained 5.8 percentage points (81.2% vs. 75.4%), and Chicago gained 3.4 points (77.7% vs. 74.2%). Both major urban markets have moved past their 2023 peak levels.

Don’t let the underdog nature of this list discourage you. These markets have real fundamentals behind their numbers. Fort Wayne at 82.2% occupancy in July is not a fluke; it reflects sustained corporate and event-driven demand in a market that did not overextend on supply. If you are comparing entry prices to cash flow potential, secondary city markets deserve a serious look right now. Check the StaySTRA Analyzer to see how specific secondary markets pencil out.

Markets Still Below 2023 Peak: The Correction That Isn’t Finished

The other side of the ledger: 217 of 326 markets (67%) still track below their Q3 2023 occupancy levels. Here are the markets carrying the heaviest gaps.

The reasons vary by market, and it is worth slowing down to understand each one. For Steamboat Springs and Vail, the story is supply overhang. These ski destinations attracted a flood of new listings from 2020 through 2023 as investors chased post-pandemic ski demand. Vail went from a constrained inventory environment to one with meaningful excess supply, and the occupancy gap reflects that imbalance working itself out. Supply growth in Colorado mountain markets ran close to 20% annually at the peak and has only recently decelerated to low single digits.

Maui is a different case. Hawaii’s STR supply has actually been compressing under regulatory pressure (Maui Bill 9, signed in December 2025 with phase-outs taking effect in 2029 and 2031, and related legislation; Source), yet occupancy is still 13.6 points below 2023. The driver is demand, specifically the collapse of Canadian visitor arrivals and a broader softening in premium leisure travel to the islands as mainland household budgets tighten.

Seattle and Boston carry the legacy of exceptionally high occupancy in 2023 that was at least partly inflated by FIFA World Cup anticipation. Both cities had more speculative booking demand in Q3 2023 than they will likely see again absent a comparable mega-event. Their 2026 occupancy numbers are not bad in absolute terms; they just cannot match an anomalous peak.

Recovery by Market Type: Where Your Category Stands

Ski and Mountain Markets: The Correction Lingers

Of all market types, ski and mountain destinations show the weakest recovery pattern. Vail/Avon sits 9.6 points below 2023. Steamboat Springs carries a 12.6 point gap. Breckenridge is 7.6 points below. Park City lags by 7.0 points. Durango by 9.2 points.

The exception is Aspen/Snowmass, which has actually recovered to 72.4% occupancy in Q3 2026 versus 70.5% in Q3 2023. Aspen is a demand-constrained market by design. New STR licenses are tightly controlled, and existing inventory commands premium ADR. That regulatory moat has protected occupancy where markets with looser supply dynamics have struggled.

For investors evaluating mountain market entry: the ADR story is more encouraging than the occupancy story. Mountain market ADRs are up meaningfully from 2023 levels, which buffers RevPAR even where occupancy hasn’t fully recaptured the peak. But stay with me here: if you are underwriting a deal based on 2023 occupancy in Vail or Steamboat, you are likely overestimating expected booking volume for the next 12 to 18 months.

Beach and Coastal Markets: Within Striking Distance

Beach markets tell a more encouraging story. Most are within one to five percentage points of their 2023 peak, and several have already crossed back above.

Atlantic City/Ocean City (NJ) registered essentially flat occupancy (78.6% vs. 78.6%). Panama City (FL) came in at 84.6% versus 84.1% in 2023, above peak. The Outer Banks (NC) sits just 1.0 point below (85.3% vs. 86.4%). Cape Cod is within 1.0 point. Cape San Blas/St. George Island (FL) turned positive. Delaware/Maryland Beaches are 0.8 points below 2023, essentially at peak.

Think of it like a tide gauge: the water level is nearly back to its high-water mark on most of the Atlantic and Gulf Coast. The Pacific and Hawaii are still catching up.

Urban Markets: The Split Screen

Urban markets present the most polarized picture of any category. Some of the strongest recoveries in our data are urban: New York City (+5.8 pp), Chicago (+3.4 pp), Boise (+7.9 pp). Some of the weakest are also urban: Seattle (-9.8 pp), Houston (-9.3 pp), Boston (-9.2 pp), Miami (-8.8 pp), Atlanta (-7.1 pp).

The differentiator is not market size. It is what drove 2023 occupancy. Cities where 2023 was inflated by a specific catalyst (World Cup preparation, mega-events, speculative listings) are normalizing. Cities where 2023 was a genuine organic demand baseline have maintained or improved on it.

Investors in urban markets should verify what drove 2023 occupancy before using it as an underwriting baseline. The StaySTRA Analyzer shows a market’s occupancy history, which helps you calibrate a sustainable expectation rather than anchoring to a peak that may have been event-driven.

Lake Markets: Mostly Still Below, But Rate Growth Is Real

Lake markets absorbed dramatic supply growth during 2021 and 2022 as drive-to leisure demand drove unprecedented listing volume. Most are still digesting that inventory. Lake Hartwell (SC) carries the deepest gap in our entire database at -14.8 points. Lake of Ozarks is -6.2 points. Deep Creek (MD) -5.6 points. Lake Tahoe -3.7 points. Door County (WI) -4.1 points.

The bright spot: ADR gains in lake markets have been strong. Hosts who have maintained quality and pricing discipline are capturing higher revenue per booked night even at lower occupancy rates. The RevPAR story in lake markets is better than the occupancy gap suggests.

What This Means for the Buy, Hold, or Sell Decision

I have spent 40 years working with data, first as a government statistician in Washington and later as a market researcher out here in Santa Fe. Sitting at my desk this morning, black coffee in hand, the lesson I kept coming back to is simple: the right question about any number isn’t “is it good or bad?” It is “what does it mean for the decision in front of you?”

For STR investors, the recovery data points to a few things worth keeping in mind.

The correction has ended at the revenue level, even where it hasn’t fully ended at the occupancy level. RevPAR across our database is up 11.6% from Q3 2023. Investors who underwrote deals based on 2022 or early 2023 occupancy expectations have experienced a correction in booking volume, but the revenue impact has been cushioned by rate growth. If your hold thesis was income-based, the math looks better than the occupancy headline alone suggests.

Not all 2023 peaks were created equal. If a market’s 2023 peak was driven by structural demand (constrained supply, strong repeat visitor base, no single mega-event), then a gap below that peak represents a real opportunity. If the 2023 peak was a one-time demand spike, the gap is measuring noise. Context is everything.

Secondary cities deserve more attention than they are getting. Amarillo, Fort Wayne, Springfield, Jackson: investors who focused exclusively on Vail and Maui in 2021 missed the quiet outperformance of these markets. The data suggests that supply discipline in secondary markets has produced more durable occupancy than the glamour destinations. That pattern may not last as more investors notice it, which is an argument for moving sooner rather than later.

For buyers specifically: the analysis of market type matters more than the national headline. A buyer evaluating a beach property near Atlantic City should have a very different assessment than a buyer looking at Steamboat Springs. Our best Airbnb markets analysis for 2026 investors covers the market-level investment case in more depth. And the Q4 2026 market positioning piece covers which markets are holding their occupancy as we move into the slower season.

If you are trying to answer “is this the right time to buy in my specific target market?”, the national recovery rate does not give you that answer. What gives you that answer is the specific market’s occupancy trajectory against its own 2023 baseline, alongside the current supply picture. That is exactly the analysis the StaySTRA Analyzer is built to run. Check whether your specific market has recovered. Run it in the StaySTRA Analyzer.

We do our best to keep our data accurate and up to date, but markets move fast and we are only human. Always verify current figures directly with local sources before making investment decisions.