Decoding the Disruption: Trump's Tariffs and the Future of Short-Term Rentals

The implementation of the 2025 Trump Tariffs marks a notable shift in international trade policy, and as the Legal & Policy Contributor for this blog, it’s my responsibility to analyze the potential ramifications for the short-term rental (STR) market. While the tariffs are broad in scope, their impact on tourism, particularly from our neighbors to the north, Canada, warrants careful consideration.

In early April 2025, President Trump enacted a “reciprocal” tariff plan, citing trade imbalances and unfair practices. This involved a baseline 10% tariff on most imports, effective April 5th, with higher, “individualized” tariffs for specific countries following on April 9th. While Canada wasn’t initially subject to these individualized tariffs, pre-existing duties on steel, aluminum, and automobiles remained, alongside a complex structure of tariffs and exemptions under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Predictably, Canada responded with its own countermeasures, including tariffs on US automobiles and a range of other goods.

This multi-layered approach, while intended to address trade deficits, introduces considerable complexity and uncertainty, factors that often deter discretionary spending like international travel. Even with USMCA exemptions, the tariffs on key sectors, coupled with the overall trade dispute, are likely to sour the economic relationship between the US and Canada, potentially leading to a decrease in leisure travel.

The Rising Cost of Crossing the Border

The tariffs are expected to increase the cost of US travel for Canadians through both direct and indirect mechanisms. Directly, the tariffs will likely inflate the prices of imported goods within the US. Canadian tourists purchasing goods will likely face higher prices as American businesses pass on tariff costs. Indirectly, the 25% tariff on automobiles could eventually raise rental car prices. Furthermore, Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods could increase the cost of living for Canadians, reducing their discretionary spending on travel. Economic uncertainty stemming from the trade dispute could also negatively impact the Canadian dollar’s exchange rate against the US dollar, making US travel more expensive. Experts anticipate that these tariffs will generally lead to higher prices for American consumers , and the travel industry is no exception, with potential increases in operating costs for airlines and hotels being passed on to consumers.

Destinations on Edge: Where Will Canadians Stay Away?

Historically, Florida, California, Nevada, New York, and Texas have been the top US destinations for Canadian tourists seeking short-term rentals. Within these states, Orlando, Las Vegas, and New York City are particularly popular. Border states like New York and Michigan also heavily rely on Canadian tourism , with Detroit and the Wildwoods on the New Jersey Shore being notable examples. Even destinations like Virginia Beach have acknowledged the potential impact and are offering discounts to attract Canadian visitors.

Destinations with strong historical ties to Canada and those located near the border are particularly vulnerable. Las Vegas, with nearly half of its international airport arrivals from Canada , stands to see a significant impact on its short-term rental market.

The Economic Stakes: Billions on the Line

Canada is the leading source of international visitors to the US. In 2024, Canadians made 20.4 million trips, spending $20.5 billion and supporting an estimated 140,000 American jobs. Even a modest 10% reduction in Canadian travel could result in 2 million fewer visits, a $2.1 billion loss in spending, and 14,000 potential job losses.

Early data from 2025 already indicates a decline in Canadian travel to the US. Vehicle crossings and air travel have both decreased , and hotel bookings from Canada to US destinations have also seen a drop. Notably, vacation rental professionals in Florida reported a 16% decline in Canadian reservations through mid-February 2025, and rental managers in Hawaii saw a 14% decrease. Border regions are also feeling the pinch, with hotel demand down in Niagara Falls, NY, and Bellingham, WA.

Key Table 1: Impact of Reduced Canadian Tourism on Select US States (Based on Early 2025 Data)

State	Metric	Percentage Change (Year-over-Year)
Florida	Decline in vacation rental reservations	-16%
Hawaii	Decline in rental bookings	-14%
New York	Decrease in hotel room demand (Niagara Falls)	-8%
Washington	Decrease in hotel room demand (Bellingham)	-12%

Looking North and Beyond: Alternative Destinations

Faced with increased costs and a potentially less welcoming perception of the US, Canadian tourists have numerous alternative destinations. The Canadian government has encouraged domestic travel , and searches for domestic Airbnb stays have reportedly surged. Ontario’s cottage country is being promoted as a luxurious alternative , alongside other Canadian gems like the Cabot Trail, the Canadian Rockies, and major cities. The Canadian dollar’s parity with itself makes domestic travel financially straightforward.

Internationally, destinations where the Canadian dollar holds strong purchasing power, such as Australia, Egypt, and Vietnam, are becoming more attractive. Other popular alternatives include Portugal, Costa Rica, Thailand, and Mexico.

Economic Ripples: Regional Vulnerabilities

The anticipated decline in Canadian tourism is expected to have a significant economic impact on the US short-term rental market, with border states and historically popular destinations bearing the brunt. Economists have warned of a potential slowdown in the US economy due to the tariffs , and the U.S. Travel Association has cautioned about substantial job losses and billions in lost spending. The early decrease in hotel demand in border regions and the drop in bookings in Florida and Hawaii are concerning indicators. Some experts believe the tariffs create an “unwelcoming environment” for foreign tourists, potentially exacerbating the decline.

Expert Opinions and Historical Echoes

Industry associations like the Association of Canadian Travel Agencies (ACTA) and the U.S. Travel Association have voiced concerns about the tariffs’ impact on travel. Hotel industry data reveals a decrease in average hotel prices in major US destinations , possibly reflecting market uncertainty and softening demand. Notably, Canadian hotel searches for US destinations have significantly declined , suggesting a broader reluctance to travel south.

Historically, trade disputes between the US and Canada have correlated with decreased cross-border travel. During past disagreements, some Canadians informally boycotted American goods and services, including leisure trips. The early decline in Canadian travel in 2025 , the “collapse” in demand for flights between the two countries , and the surge in domestic Airbnb searches all echo this historical pattern.

Conclusion: Navigating the Shifting Landscape

The evidence suggests that the 2025 Trump Tariffs will negatively impact the US short-term rental market due to a decline in Canadian tourism. Increased travel costs, a less welcoming perception, and attractive alternatives are all contributing factors. Border states and popular tourist destinations are most at risk.

To mitigate these potential consequences, stakeholders in the US short-term rental market should consider diversifying their target markets, enhancing their value propositions, implementing strategic marketing, collaborating with tourism boards, and maintaining flexibility in their pricing and service offerings. While the long-term effects remain to be seen, proactive adaptation will be crucial for navigating this evolving landscape.