STR Occupancy Is Down 13% Nationally. The Markets Still Winning Are Doing One Thing Differently.

National STR occupancy fell 13% year over year in early 2026, according to PriceLabs data now circulating through every STR investing forum and Facebook group on the internet. The number is real. The panic it is generating is not entirely warranted.

I spent the last week pulling StaySTRA’s market-level occupancy data across hundreds of U.S. markets, comparing first-half 2025 performance against the same period in 2024. What the data reveals is a story that the headline number completely obscures: some markets are collapsing while others are quietly posting their best occupancy numbers in years. The difference between the two groups is not random. It is predictable, and it has been predictable for anyone willing to look at the supply data before writing a check.

Here is what is actually happening, who is getting hurt, and what you should do about it.

The Headline Number Is Real, But It Is Hiding a Massive Divergence

PriceLabs pegs the national STR occupancy decline at roughly 13% year over year. StaySTRA’s own market-level data shows an even steeper aggregate drop when you average across all tracked U.S. markets: approximately 24.7% in unweighted terms. The difference comes down to methodology. PriceLabs weights by market size. Our number treats a 300-listing market the same as a 10,000-listing market. Both numbers are telling you something real.

The weighted number tells you the average host is feeling pain. The unweighted number tells you the pain is concentrated in smaller and mid-size markets where oversupply hit hardest relative to demand.

But here is what neither number tells you on its own: occupancy moved in opposite directions depending on where you are. StaySTRA data shows a spread of more than 140 percentage points between the best-performing and worst-performing major U.S. markets. That is not a national trend. That is two completely different realities happening simultaneously.

The Markets That Are Actually Winning

StaySTRA data identifies several major markets (300+ active listings) where occupancy grew year over year during the first half of the measurement period. These are not flukes. They share identifiable characteristics that explain why they are bucking the national trend.

Mountain Resort Recovery Markets

Steamboat Springs, Colorado posted a staggering 106.8% occupancy increase year over year, climbing from 27.2% to 56.3%. Park City, Utah jumped 78.5% (27.5% to 49.0%). Mammoth Lakes, California gained 79.2% (28.0% to 50.1%). Frisco, Colorado surged 76.0% (33.3% to 58.7%).

Before you book a flight to buy a ski condo, understand the context. These markets had unusually depressed first-half 2024 numbers, likely driven by poor snow seasons and weather disruptions that cratered occupancy last year. What you are seeing is a bounce-back to more normal levels, not a breakout into new territory. The story here is resilience, not a gold rush.

Florida Recovery and Growth Markets

The Florida story is more interesting for investors because it reflects genuine demand shifts rather than weather normalization.

Cape Coral posted 38.9% occupancy growth (47.3% to 65.7%) with over 6,600 active listings. Fort Myers Beach gained 28.0% (55.1% to 70.5%) across 2,098 listings. Port Saint Lucie climbed 42.7% (47.4% to 67.6%). Delray Beach rose 29.7% (55.4% to 71.8%). Jacksonville gained 5.4% (57.8% to 60.9%) with 3,621 listings.

Fort Myers Beach and Cape Coral tell a recovery story. Hurricane Ian devastated Southwest Florida in September 2022, and supply and demand have been normalizing since. The occupancy growth reflects rebuilt inventory meeting pent-up demand for destinations that travelers genuinely want to visit. StaySTRA’s Gulf Coast market data tracks this recovery in detail.

Jacksonville’s growth is quieter but arguably more meaningful for investors. This is not a recovery bounce. It is a market where demand is outpacing supply growth because Jacksonville has not attracted the same speculative investor rush that hit Nashville and Austin. StaySTRA data shows the city’s 3,621 active listings serving 8 million annual visitors, with an average daily rate of $147.97 and 63% current occupancy. The numbers work because the math works.

Sun Belt Performers

Miami posted 17.2% occupancy growth (61.5% to 72.1%), Phoenix gained 14.2% (58.5% to 66.8%), Scottsdale climbed 10.2% (62.7% to 69.1%), and Tucson rose 24.2% (52.2% to 64.9%). Orlando gained 3.8% (66.4% to 68.9%).

These markets share something important: they are not just vacation destinations. Miami has international travel demand that is largely insulated from domestic economic anxiety. Phoenix and Scottsdale benefit from snowbird patterns, spring training, and a growing corporate relocation pipeline. Tucson has regulatory constraints that limit new STR supply. Orlando has theme park demand that creates a demand floor other markets simply do not have.

What the Winners Have in Common

Data indicates a clear pattern across markets that are holding or gaining occupancy. Three factors keep appearing.

Supply constraints. Markets where regulations, geography, or economics limit the number of new listings entering the market tend to hold occupancy better. Tucson’s permitting requirements create friction. Miami’s condo regulations limit conversions. Orlando’s theme park proximity creates demand that absorbs new supply. When supply cannot grow faster than demand, occupancy holds.

Diversified demand sources. Markets that rely on a single demand driver (beach vacation, ski season, bachelor party weekends) are vulnerable. Markets with multiple demand generators (events, corporate travel, snowbirds, international visitors, medical tourism) show resilience because losing one demand channel does not crater the whole market.

Operator differentiation. This one is harder to measure in the data but impossible to ignore in the field. In every market I track, the hosts who invested in their properties (hot tubs, game rooms, professional photography, curated local guides, fast wifi for remote workers) are outperforming their neighbors who listed a house with a bed and a Keurig. The national occupancy decline is partly a story about the bottom tier of listings getting squeezed out. Professional operators in winning markets are not just surviving. They are taking share from the lazy listings around them.

The Danger Markets Where Pain Is Concentrated

StaySTRA data reveals several major markets where occupancy is in freefall. If you own property in these markets, you need this information. If you are considering buying in these markets, you really need this information.

The Worst Performers (Major Markets, 300+ Listings)

Denver, Colorado: -31.5% YoY (78.8% down to 54.0%, 5,428 listings). Denver added thousands of listings during the 2021-2022 gold rush. Demand has not kept pace. The city’s occupancy collapse is a textbook case of what happens when speculative supply overwhelms organic demand. Average monthly revenue dropped from $3,198 to $2,311.

Nashville, Tennessee: -18.6% YoY (66.7% down to 54.3%). Nashville was the poster child of the STR investment boom. Every podcast, every guru, every “passive income” course pointed investors toward Nashville. The result: a market flooded with nearly identical listings all competing for the same bachelorette party traffic. Revenue per listing fell from an average of $5,337 per month to $3,960.

Asheville, North Carolina: -25.3% YoY (63.3% down to 47.3%). Asheville illustrates what happens when a small market gets “discovered” by investors. The city’s regulatory environment has also tightened, adding uncertainty that suppresses both new investment and traveler confidence. Average revenue dropped from $2,981 to $2,068 per month.

Sevierville, Tennessee: -31.2% YoY. Dropped from 79.3% to 54.5% across a massive 10,865 listings. Gatlinburg fell 12.3% (61.6% to 54.0%). The Smoky Mountains corridor was one of the most heavily marketed STR investment regions during the pandemic boom. Too many cabins chasing a finite number of visitors.

Myrtle Beach, South Carolina: -11.8% YoY (63.8% down to 56.3%). Panama City Beach, Florida: -15.0% (66.7% to 56.7%). These beach markets face the dual pressure of supply growth and a consumer shift. Budget-conscious travelers are shortening trips and booking fewer nights, which hits high-supply beach markets hardest.

Portland, Maine: -35.4% YoY (80.0% down to 51.7%). Kill Devil Hills, North Carolina: -43.3% (88.9% down to 50.4%). Tybee Island, Georgia: -35.6% (90.0% down to 58.0%). Seasonal markets with short booking windows are getting crushed because even a modest supply increase concentrates the damage into the few months that actually generate revenue.

Who Got Hurt, and What They Could Have Known

Sources reveal a consistent profile among the hosts and investors feeling the most pain right now. They share three characteristics.

They bought at the peak. Investors who purchased STR properties in 2021 and 2022 paid peak prices. Mortgage rates have since climbed from the 3% range to above 6%. Their cost basis is higher than investors who entered earlier, which means their break-even occupancy rate is higher. When occupancy drops 15 to 30%, the math stops working fast.

They bought in markets everyone was talking about. Nashville. The Smokies. Myrtle Beach. Denver. These markets appeared in every “best STR markets” list precisely because they were performing well in 2021. But what made them attractive to investors also made them targets for every other investor reading the same lists. Supply data from 2022 and 2023 already showed these markets were adding listings at rates that would inevitably suppress occupancy. The data was available. Most buyers did not look at it.

They did not differentiate. A three-bedroom house with a generic listing and stock photos was enough to fill a calendar in 2021. It is not enough in 2026. The operators getting crushed are the ones who treated their STR like a vending machine rather than a hospitality business. The ones who are thriving invested in the guest experience because they understood that when supply grows, the lowest-quality listings get squeezed first.

I want to be direct about something. The industry that marketed these investments bears some responsibility. The influencers and gurus who pushed oversaturated markets without showing supply data did real damage. The “passive income” narrative that sold hosts on buying in competitive markets without a differentiation strategy was always incomplete. Data indicates that most of the occupancy pain is concentrated among investors who relied on market momentum rather than market analysis.

What This Actually Means for Your Strategy

The national occupancy decline is real. But it is not a reason to panic or to sell. It is a reason to get specific about your market, your numbers, and your competitive position.

If You Already Own an STR

Run your numbers against current market conditions, not 2021 conditions. StaySTRA’s Airbnb calculator can show you what realistic revenue looks like in your specific market with current occupancy rates. If your property is in a declining market, the question is not whether to sell. The question is whether you can differentiate enough to capture a larger share of a shrinking pie. Upgraded amenities, professional photography, dynamic pricing, and guest experience improvements can move your individual occupancy 10 to 20 points above the market average. That might be enough. Run the math.

If You Are Looking to Buy

The decline is actually good news for buyers with discipline. Prices are softening in oversupplied markets, and some sellers are motivated. But buying a discounted property in a market with structural oversupply is not a deal. It is a trap. Focus on markets where StaySTRA data shows occupancy holding or growing, and where supply growth is constrained. The Florida recovery markets, the Sun Belt performers, and undersupplied mid-size cities like Jacksonville are where the math still works.

If You Are Thinking About Selling

Do not make this decision based on a national headline number. If your property is in Miami, Phoenix, or Jacksonville, you are in a growing market. Selling based on a national average that does not reflect your local reality would be a mistake. If you are in Nashville, Denver, or the Smokies, the calculus is different. Look at your trailing twelve-month revenue, compare it to your debt service, and be honest about whether the trend is going to reverse. In some of these markets, it will not reverse until supply contracts, which means some operators need to exit before conditions improve for the rest.

The Supply Growth Story Underneath the Occupancy Story

National STR supply growth has slowed dramatically, from roughly 20% annual growth at the 2021-2022 peak to approximately 4.6% projected for 2026. That slowdown is the most important number in this entire article for long-term investors.

Slowing supply growth means the worst of the oversupply pressure is likely behind us nationally. But “nationally” does not help you if you are in a market where supply already overshot demand by 40%. The normalization process in oversupplied markets will take 12 to 24 months of either listings exiting or demand growing into the excess capacity. Both are happening, but neither happens overnight.

Markets where supply growth was always moderate (Jacksonville, Tucson, many mid-size Florida markets) never experienced the oversupply problem in the first place. Their occupancy stability reflects a market that was never broken. That is a very different investment thesis than buying into a recovering market and hoping the correction plays out in your favor.

The Two-Tier Market Is Here to Stay

The STR industry is splitting into two tiers, and the data confirms this is not a temporary phase.

Tier one consists of professional operators in supply-constrained markets with diversified demand. These hosts maintain 60 to 75% occupancy, generate strong revenue per listing, and are gaining share as weaker operators exit. Their properties are differentiated, their pricing is dynamic, and their operations are dialed in.

Tier two consists of undifferentiated listings in oversupplied markets, often owned by investors who are over-leveraged from peak-era purchases. These properties are seeing occupancy in the 40 to 55% range, declining revenue, and increasing competition from both new supply and from tier-one operators who keep raising the quality bar.

The national occupancy number blends these two tiers into a single statistic that accurately describes almost nobody’s actual experience. Your strategy should be built on your tier, your market, and your numbers. Not on a national average.

We do our best to keep our reporting accurate and up to date, but situations evolve and we are only human. Always verify current details directly with local officials and sources before making decisions.

See Where Your Market Stands

The national occupancy number does not tell you anything useful about your specific property in your specific market. StaySTRA’s free Airbnb calculator pulls real occupancy, ADR, and revenue data for your exact location so you can make decisions based on actual market conditions, not headlines. Check where your market sits in the two-tier split.