Hi everyone, Meredith Lane here, digging into the tough stuff impacting our communities. Right now, all eyes are on Maui. It’s a place known for beauty, but scarred by fire and now facing a huge fight over vacation rentals. Thousands of families are still reeling from the Lahaina disaster, desperate for homes. Mayor Richard Bissen says he has a solution: kick out thousands of short-term rentals (STRs) to make room for locals. But will it work? Or will it just wreck Maui’s economy and leave even more people struggling? Let’s break it down.

The Plan: Targeting the “Minatoya List”

So, what’s the actual plan? Mayor Bissen wants to phase out about 7,000 vacation rentals. These aren’t illegal operations; they’re condos, mostly in apartment zones, that got special permission years ago to operate as STRs. People call this the “Minatoya List,” after the lawyer who gave the opinion back in 1992.

These are places many tourists stay, especially in West Maui (near Lahaina) and South Maui (like Kihei). They are mostly one or two-bedroom condos. Here’s the timeline the Mayor proposed:

• July 1, 2025: Ban starts for about 2,200 units in West Maui.
• January 1, 2026: Ban extends to the rest of the Minatoya List condos across Maui.

The idea is simple: force these condo owners to either rent long-term (180 days or more) to residents, live there themselves, sell, or leave them empty. The goal? Get those units back into the housing pool for locals. But notice, this plan doesn’t touch STRs in hotel zones or permitted B&Bs. It’s laser-focused on this specific group of condos.

Why Now? A Housing Crisis Meets a Wildfire Tragedy

This didn’t come out of nowhere. Maui has struggled for decades to house its own people. Land is limited, building is expensive, and for years, more homes were turned into vacation rentals than were built for residents. You needed to earn nearly $200,000 a year just to afford the average rent! Teachers, nurses, hotel workers – the people who make Maui run – couldn’t afford to live there.

Then came the Lahaina fire in August 2023. It wasn’t just a fire; it was a catastrophe. Lives lost, thousands homeless overnight. The housing crisis became a humanitarian emergency. Suddenly, those vacation condos looked like potential homes for survivors. Groups like Lahaina Strong started demanding action, standing with the Mayor. They argued: these units were meant for residents anyway, let’s take them back.

And importantly, a state law passed in May 2024 (SB 2919) gave Maui County the clear power to make this kind of move, removing legal roadblocks that stopped earlier attempts. The fire created the urgency, and the state law provided the tool.

The Million-Dollar Question: Will This Actually House Locals?

Okay, so the plan is to free up 7,000 units. Sounds great, right? Proponents, like the Mayor, say this is a direct path to more homes and maybe, just maybe, lower prices. One study (from the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization, or UHERO) suggests condo prices could drop 20% to 40%.

But hold on. Critics are shouting warnings.

• No Guarantees: Owners can’t be forced to rent long-term. They could sell – maybe to mainland buyers looking for a cheaper second home, not locals. They could use it themselves part-time. They could just leave it empty. Where’s the guarantee these become homes for fire survivors or local workers?
• Wrong Kind of Homes? Many of these condos are small studios or one-bedrooms. Are they right for families? Plus, they often have huge monthly HOA fees ($1,000-$1,500 or more!) and are in tourist zones, maybe far from schools or local jobs. Are these really the affordable homes people need?
• Still Too Expensive? Even if prices drop, add those high HOA fees, property taxes, and mortgage payments. Will working families actually be able to afford them?

It seems like a big gamble. Will kicking out tourists really create the affordable, suitable homes Maui desperately needs? Or are we just shuffling the deck chairs?

Economic Tremors: Jobs, Taxes, and Maui’s Lifeline

Then there’s the economy. Maui runs on tourism. Pulling thousands of rental units offline is like pulling threads from the island’s main fabric. The warnings are stark:

• UHERO Study: Predicts $900 million less visitor spending each year, about 1,900 jobs lost (maybe double that), and up to $60 million less in county property taxes annually. That’s money needed for fire recovery and basic services.
• Other Studies: Some paint an even bleaker picture, talking about billions in lost economic activity and over 14,000 jobs gone. They call it an “economic crash and burn.”

Mayor Bissen pushes back. He says these models don’t capture the “lived experiences” of struggling residents. Calling the ban “pro-resident,” arguing it’s about community balance, not just dollars and cents. Bissen believes Maui depends too much on tourism anyway. But the question hangs heavy: Can Maui afford this, especially now? Who pays the price if thousands lose their jobs – cleaners, landscapers, shop owners, restaurant workers?

Where Things Stand Now (April 2025): Waiting and Worrying

Nearly a year after the Mayor announced this plan, Maui is still waiting. The County Council has the final say. They got the bill back in December 2024 and face a deadline: June 18, 2025. They need to vote yes, no, or change the plan.

But the Council hasn’t even scheduled the big hearing yet, likely waiting until after budget season. They tried to get their own independent economic study done, but couldn’t find anyone to do it. So, they’re relying on reports like UHERO’s and their own staff research.

Meanwhile, the uncertainty is already hurting. People are calling it a “chilling effect.”

• Condo sales listings have exploded – nearly four times higher than two years ago! Prices are starting to dip.
• Some STR owners are selling, cutting rates, or seeing fewer bookings. Businesses that support STRs are feeling the pinch.

Mayor Bissen is publicly standing firm, saying the focus must be on residents. But there are whispers – unconfirmed rumors, mind you – that maybe he’d consider shrinking the ban to target fewer units, perhaps only those originally meant for workers. We don’t know if that’s true, but it shows how tense things are. Maui is caught in limbo, feeling the economic pain before any potential housing gain.

The Opposition: Property Rights and Finding Fault

Who’s fighting this? Lots of people.

• STR Owners: They say they bought these condos legally, relying on that Minatoya opinion. They argue taking away their right to rent short-term is unfair and possibly illegal – a violation of property rights. Lawsuits are almost certain if the ban passes.
• Tourism & Real Estate Groups: They point to the economic damage and job losses. They also argue it won’t solve the housing crisis because the units aren’t right or owners won’t convert.
• Some Residents: Polls cited by opponents suggest many Maui voters prefer cracking down on illegal STRs, not banning legal ones. They worry about the cost of living and homelessness more than vacation rentals.
• The “Scapegoat” Argument: Many feel STR owners are being blamed for decades of the county failing to plan and build enough affordable housing. Is this ban fixing the real problem, or just pointing fingers?

Is There Another Way? Ideas on the Table

Opponents aren’t just saying “no.” Many agree housing is a crisis. They suggest other paths:

• Tax, Don’t Ban: Hike property taxes way up for STRs. Maybe that pushes some owners to sell or rent long-term, and it brings the county more money, not less. Tax empty homes, too.
• Go After Illegal Rentals: Focus police power on the rule-breakers, not the legal operators.
• Build, Build, Build: Cut the red tape that makes building new homes so slow and costly. Give real incentives for affordable projects. Fix infrastructure.
• Smarter Rules: Maybe cap the number of STRs in certain areas? Make rules stricter? Phase things out much slower?

Maui’s Crossroads: A Painful Choice

Here’s the bottom line: Maui is facing a heartbreaking choice with no easy answers. The need for housing, especially after the fire, is real and urgent. People are suffering. But the risk of crippling the economy that supports so many families is also terrifyingly real.

Will the ban work as intended? Can Maui afford the potential fallout? Are there better ways to help families find homes without causing an economic meltdown?

The County Council has a heavy burden. Their decision by June 18th will echo for years. Whatever they choose, legal fights are likely, and the deep problems of housing and tourism won’t disappear overnight. This isn’t just about condos; it’s about Maui’s future, its people, and its soul. We’ll be watching closely. Stay tuned.

Other Cities that are trying to Ban Short Term Rentals.

Dallas, TX